Russia’s summer offensive to revisit 2024 scenario, focusing on Donbas - expert

This was stated by defense expert, chief of the New Geopolitics Research Network platform Mykhailo Samus, who spoke in an interview with Ukrinform.

"The Russian summer offensive is an absolute carbon copy of 2024. The only difference is that after the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk, it became much more difficult for Russian troops to operate in Kharkiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv regions," the expert noted.

According to the expert, like last year, the Kremlin is attacking northern regions of Ukraine to distract and exhaust the defense forces. At the same time, the aggressor's main objective remains unchanged, which is the full occupation of Donbas.

"Russia's main approaches have not changed: pressure from the north, show-off actions in the south, and at the same time focusing their main efforts on Donbas: Kostiantynivka, Pokrovsk, Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, and Lyman," Samus noted.

In his opinion, the enemy's advance in Sumy region or toward Kharkiv is ineffective and too costly. The most that the enemy managed to achieve is a slight advance by a few kilometers without any strategic or political effect.

"Kharkiv is another example. Months of fighting, and only a few-kilometer gain. Zero political result," the expert emphasized.

Against this background, Samus believes, 2026 may become crucial, since Russia will no longer have the edge they enjoyed in 2024 due to delays in Western assistance.

“Europe is expanding aid, Ukraine is switching to a new organizational model, a corps structure, the effectiveness of decision-making is increasing, and the command is acting more and more coherently,” he noted.

In addition, the expert believes, Germany’s revision of its defense policy as well as the buildup of own missile arms production in Ukraine will come as important factors and significantly increase the defense capability of the nation and the entire European space.

 “Meanwhile, Russia may face a catastrophe. There is no systemic novelty in its actions – only repetition, only an attempt to squeeze the most out of what’s left,” concluded Samus.

As Ukrinform reported, earlier, Federal Chancellor of Germany Friedrich Merz said Germany would finance the production of Ukrainian long-range weapons systems, adding there would be no restrictions on the range of their use.

On Wednesday in Berlin, the Ministers of Defense of Ukraine and Germany, Rustem Umerov and Boris Pistorius, signed an agreement on financing the production of long-range weapons in Ukraine. In addition, a contract was concluded between Ukraine and the German defense industry.

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