Russia slows tempo of its offensive operations near Avdiivka - ISW

The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said this in its latest report, according to Ukrinform.

ISW experts, referring to the statement by spokesman for the Tavria operational and strategic grouping of troops Dmytro Lykhoviy as of February 19, said that the number of Russian attacks in the Avdiivka direction significantly decreased in the past day and that Russian forces are currently regrouping and conducting clearing operations in Avdiivka.

As noted, Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to a new line of defense, which Ukrainian forces previously prepared in advance and fortified at “several levels”.

The report says that Russian forces will likely have to conduct an operational pause before resuming significant offensive operations in the Avdiivka direction or will have to transfer additional reinforcements from other sectors of the front to the area to prevent operations near Avdiivka from culminating. Russian forces have reserves available for such reinforcement in other sectors, but ISW has observed no indication that the Russian command is moving those reserves toward Avdiivka at this time. Lykhoviy and Ukrainian Khortytsia Group of Forces Spokesperson Captain Ilya Yevlash, on the contrary, stated that the Russian command will likely transfer Russian forces accumulated around Avdiivka to other, unspecified areas of the frontline in the near future. Yevlash stated that it will likely take Russian forces at least a week to transfer units from Avdiivka into battle in unspecified frontline areas.

“ISW has not yet observed any indications of how Russian forces will choose to allocate their manpower currently deployed to the Avdiivka area,” ISW experts said.

According to the latest update from British intelligence, Russian troops likely lack the combat effectiveness to immediately exploit the capture of Avdiivka and will require a period of rest and refit.

“In coming weeks Russia will likely seek to gradually extend its territorial control beyond Avdiivka,” the UK Ministry of Defense said.

As reported by Ukrinform, in the Avdiivka sector, Ukrainian troops have strengthened their positions on new defensive lines and are successfully repelling Russian attempts to launch an offensive.

Photo: Kostiantyn and Vlada Liberov