Cluster munitions provide for “porcupine” defense against outpowering force – ex-advisor to CinC Zaluzhnyi

That’s according to Dan Rice, former special advisor to Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces Valerii Zaluzhnyi and Dr John Nagl, a Professor of Warfighting Studies at the U.S. Army War College, who co-penned an article for Small Wars Journal, seen by Ukrinform. 

“Cluster munitions are, essentially, the perfect deterrence against a land invasion,” the report reads.

Any country bordering Russia, China, or North Korea authors stress, should be heavily armed with cluster munitions and publicly make both China and Russia aware that they have significant quantities of these weapons and are prepared to use them. 

"If they arm themselves to be porcupines, they are less likely to be attractive. The weaker they appear, the more attractive they will be,” the authors argue.

Had Ukraine had the 50 HIMARS launchers with cluster rockets that it now possesses prior to February 24, 2022, it is doubtful the Russians would have advanced nearly as far as they did, they add.

The authors recall that the No. 1 killer on the Ukrainian battlefield is artillery, with an estimated 80% of the casualties on both sides coming from indirect fire (artillery and mortars). 

“And the No. 1 killer of Russians is cluster munitions. Cluster Munitions have essentially shut down any ability for the Russians to advance, as they are especially lethal to exposed troops and armor in the open, and they have dramatically increased combat losses to Russian troops,” the report reads. 

At the same time, Rice and Nagl admit, this result has been underreported, and as a result both the general public and the adversies are insufficiently advised about how effective cluster munitions have been in destroying the Russian army. 

“This super-weapon has what we call in marketing ‘a branding issue’, authors say, referring to the “negative press” around the prohibition of cluster munitions under the relevant convention of 2008, which, however, was never signed by major powers such as the U.S., Russia, or China.

Moreover, 86% of the countries bordering a likely aggressor neighbor did not sign the Convention.

“Russia is bordered by fourteen countries.  Only two signed the Cluster Munitions Convention- Lithuania and Norway.   Yet Ukraine, Estonia, Finland, Poland, Latvia, Belarus, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, China, Mongolia and North Korea did not sign,” the report notes.

The Convention arbitrarily set a 1% dud rate as the standard for banning cluster munitions, knowing the western cluster munitions had a 2% “dud rate”, and claiming that anyone who used a weapon with a dud rate greater than 1% was immoral. 

It was “foolish for NATO countries to buy into it”, authors note, adding that, when the Russians invaded Ukraine, they were firing 63,000 artillery rounds per day with up to a 20% dud rate.  The Ukrainians were restricted from firing back at the invading Russians, on Ukrainian territory, with DPICM with 2% dud rates.  The argument against supplying a country to defend itself with DPICM is now moot, but the delay cost the lives of tens of thousands of Ukrainians, the report underlines.

“The U.S. government needs to balance educating the public on the benefits of cluster munitions, to maintain U.S. public support and deter future aggressors around the world,  while limiting any backlash against their use, due to the negative branding issue surrounding the weapon,” the report stresses.

“The incredible story of the lethal performance of Cluster Munitions on the modern battlefield in Ukraine, if told properly to our friends as well as our enemies, can help win the war in Ukraine by getting Ukraine more cluster munitions and help prevent future wars by acting as a deterrence against any aggressor in the future,” Rice and Nagl conclude.

As Ukrinform reported earlier, the weapon at issue is the M483 Dual-Purpose Improved Conventional Munition (DPICM), an artillery round for the 155mm systems supplied to Ukraine by the U.S., as per Forbes.

Each round scatters 88 powerful grenades; the ‘Dual-Purpose’ part of the name refers to the fact that as well as spraying lethal shrapnel to cut down footsoldiers, the grenade also has an armor-piercing shaped charge capable of damaging vehicles.

Photo: U.S. DoD