ISW expects Russia to attempt to adapt to Ukrainian air defense capabilities

The relevant statement was made by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), an Ukrinform correspondent reports.

The analysts mentioned that, during Russian attacks on January 1-2, 2024, Ukrainian forces notably shot down more Shahed drones and Kinzhal missiles than on December 29, 2023.

According to the ISW, the Ukrainian military may have adapted to the type of strike package Russian troops employed on December 29, likely after months of experimentation and testing Ukrainian air defenses using various weapons systems, strike routes, and air defense mitigation tactics.

The ISW believes that Russian strikes on Ukraine are part of an ongoing tactical and technological offense-defense race wherein both sides are constantly experimenting and adapting to the other, particularly in the realm of long-range strikes and air defense.

“Western aid to Ukraine remains crucial as Russian forces will likely continue to experiment and innovate new ways to penetrate Ukrainian air defenses,” the analysts concluded.

Referring to UK outlet the Telegraph, which cited analysts on January 1, the ISW agreed that Ukraine may have to ration its air defense missiles in the face of decreasing Western aid in order to protect targets it deems to be the most important, which would likely expose critical frontline areas if Ukraine is forced to withdraw air defense systems to cover critical population centers.

A reminder that, on January 2, 2024, Russian terrorists repeated a massive air attack against Ukraine, involving different air assault weapons. Ukrainian forces destroyed 72 out of 99 enemy air targets, namely 10 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic air-launched ballistic missiles.

Photo: Brigade ‘Rubizh’