Austrian analyst: Trump-Putin meeting possible, but don't expect too much
The possibility of a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest is real, but no significant results should be expected from it—Russia simply wants to stall for time by continuing the war.
This opinion was expressed by Austrian military expert and lecturer at the Austrian National Defense University Gustav Gressel in a comment to Ukrinform at a seminar at the Otto Mauer Center in Vienna on the situation surrounding Russia's war against Ukraine.
"Such a meeting is possible. But we should not expect much. The current Russian tactic is to draw Trump into negotiations so that he does not take tough measures, such as oil sanctions. And, in fact, the Russians were somewhat surprised that he did introduce them," the expert commented on the possibility of a meeting between Trump and Putin in Budapest.
According to him, the Russians want to have “a process, but without results,” as they are interested in continuing the war against Ukraine.
"That is, the Russians want to have a certain process, but without results, so that they can continue the war unhindered. At the same time, they want to conduct bilateral negotiations with Trump for as long as possible so that he talks less with Europeans and so that Europeans do not have a significant influence on him. This is, so to speak, their line, as far as I understand it," Gressel is convinced.
The expert also noted that, similar to Kremlinology, when trying to interpret the actions of the Kremlin, “we have almost the same thing in Washington with the Trump administration.”
"There are also different ‘towers’ in the White House, if I may say so. I think Rubio did play a role in preventing the Trump-Putin meeting from taking place in the format planned by the Russians, and that was a good thing. The problem is that I don't know how long he (Rubio - ed.) will be able to maintain this line, and between which poles Trump is still oscillating," the Austrian analyst noted.
In his opinion, the problem from a European point of view is that “such meetings always carry the risk that Trump will allow Putin to ‘lull’ him, and then it will take months to clear these Russian narratives from his head.”
"It is obvious that he was impressed by Putin's statement that he does not want a quick ceasefire, while Zelensky said that he would accept a truce along the existing line of contact. And Trump already feels a little that this is because he is not taken seriously diplomatically. Despite calling himself a great “peacemaker,” he has not received the Nobel Peace Prize and does not have the corresponding prestige. But he will try again. And Trump's problem is that he always tries to do it in the cheapest, easiest, and fastest way," Gressel said.
Instead, the analyst added, the Russians have many “rotten” proposals that fit Trump's approach, while the real end of the war is actually “laborious, lengthy, and costly” — “we see this in the Middle East and in other conflicts.”
As for the choice of Budapest as the venue for the meeting, this is explained by Trump's good relations with the Hungarian prime minister and the latter's desire to improve his domestic position ahead of the parliamentary elections.
"Well, because Orbán is his friend, they get along well. And because Orbán is feeling less confident in the polls than he would like: his Russophile position is unpopular in Hungary, and he needs results. If he can explain to his voters: ‘Yes, you may not like my rhetoric on Russians given the historical memory — 1948, 1956, etc. — but it was the only chance to do something for peace,’ then he will try to regain support," the expert explained Budapest's choice as the meeting place.
As reported by Ukrinform, on October 16, Trump had a telephone conversation with Putin, after which he said that he would meet with the Kremlin leader in Budapest “to discuss the possibility of ending this inglorious war between Russia and Ukraine.”
On October 31, after a phone call between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, the United States canceled the planned meeting in Budapest between Trump and Putin due to Russia's tough demands on Ukraine.
After that, the US Treasury Department announced sanctions against major Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil, calling on Moscow to immediately agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine.
On November 7, Trump said he considered it entirely possible to meet with Putin in Budapest. He stressed that there was a “very good chance” of this happening. At the same time, as the White House chief explained, he canceled his previous plans for the meeting because he did not believe anything important would come of it.
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