War with Iran could undermine Trump ahead of midterm elections – expert

U.S. military actions in Iran could significantly influence the results of the congressional elections scheduled for November this year.

This opinion was expressed in a comment to Ukrinform by political scientist Lincoln Mitchell of Columbia University. At the same time, he noted that it is too early to make predictions, as about eight months remain until the midterm elections, and much will depend on how long the war lasts.

“There is, I think, a pretty good chance that the United States continues to attack Iran for another week or two and then stops. And then whatever happens in Iran – and I don't think anything good is going to happen there – the United States is not really in the middle of it anymore,” Mitchell said.

In his view, the issue would then come off news headlines, “and we go back to talking about other things.” In that case, it would not have a major impact on the midterm elections.

However, if the war expands – particularly if the United States deploys troops on the ground – “this will be terrible for the Republicans,” despite the fact that “the efforts Trump is making to ensure he can steal those elections,” the analyst noted.

“The other thing is that this is going to have an impact on the economy, which will be very bad for the Republicans. It is likely that inflation will go up because China gets a lot of fossil fuel energy from Iran. If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, China will have to get that energy from somewhere else – probably Russia, because they have a close relationship – but they will get it from somewhere. If they have to buy it on the market and prices go up, then everything goes up,” Mitchell added.

The expert also predicts a worsening situation on global stock markets.

“So it's pretty bad for Trump... The threat of war is good for him – the saber-rattling – but once he starts the conflict, it's not so good for him,” Mitchell concluded.

As reported by Ukrinform, the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a surge in sulfur prices – a byproduct of oil and gas refining which, although a specialized commodity, is crucial for the production of fertilizers, chemicals, computer chips, and metal processing.