Capture of Donetsk, Luhansk regions Russia’s main war goal for 2024 - ISW
The main goal of Russia’s war campaign in Ukraine for this year is the complete occupation of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
That’s according to the report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Ukrinform saw.
Citing Ukrainian officials, ISW analysts write that this is particularly evidenced by the plan of the offensive operation, which is expected to be unleashed in the summer of 2024.
This was confirmed in an interview with The Times by the commander of Ukraine’s Ground Forces, Oleksandr Pavlyuk. According to him, the Russian military will also try to occupy Zaporizhzhia region if they succeed in capturing Donbas.
In an interview with The Economist, Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Deputy Chief Vadym Skibitskyi also stated that the Kremlin has not abandoned plans to seize Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
Pavlyuk confirmed that Russian forces also have a plan to capture Kharkiv and Sumy, but noted that it remains unclear how serious the enemy's plan is and whether they will succeed in capturing any of the two cities.
According to ISW, the Russians will struggle to seize Kharkiv, but a Russian offensive operation in the area is likely to draw and fix Ukrainian forces from other areas of the front line.
Pavlyuk stated that Ukrainian forces are doing everything possible to stop Russian efforts to seize Chasiv Yar but noted that Russian forces have an estimated 10-to-1 artillery advantage over Ukrainian forces and “total air superiority,” likely referring to Russian forces' ability to indiscriminately conduct glide bomb strikes in the area.
As for Chasiv Yar, Skibitskyi noted that Russian forces will not be able to capture the settlement in the near future, although this is likely a matter of time, which is in line with the assessment of ISW analysts.
The ISW report also refers to the statements by President Volodymyr Zelensky, who recently said Ukraine is focused on the Avdiivka axis, where the enemy has been constantly putting pressure on Ukrainian Army positions. According to the president, the occupiers plan to intensify their offensive efforts in the summer of 2024. Ukraine is facing "new stage" of the war, he added.
ISW also estimates that the first shipments of U.S. military aid arrived in Ukraine earlier this week, although it will likely take several more weeks before Western weaponry and ammunition reach the frontline areas in full.
As Ukrinform reported earlier, deputy chief of the GUR, Major General Vadym Skibitskyi, said in an interview with The Economist that currently 514,000 soldiers are fighting on the Russian side against Ukraine.