Russia losing influence in Trans-Caspian region, Ukraine’s intelligence reports

Moscow is no longer a guarantor of stability and is losing influence in the Trans-Caspian region.

This was reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine (FISU), according to Ukrinform.

“In April 2026, representatives of the Organization of Turkic States – Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Türkiye, and Uzbekistan – recorded what has long been discussed in the region: Moscow is no longer a guarantor of stability. The parties agreed to rely solely on their own capabilities,” the intelligence service stated.

The agency added that the Trans-Caspian transport route is simultaneously gaining momentum, gradually depriving Russia of its status as a key transit hub between Asia and Europe. Once this corridor reaches full capacity, Russia’s transport infrastructure will become an obsolete relic of the past, along with the Kremlin’s presence in the region, the FISU believes.

According to the report, a symbolic culmination of this process was Armenia.

“The results of the latest Armenia–Russia summit confirmed that Armenians no longer view Russia as either a strategic partner or a security guarantor. Yerevan is consistently turning toward Türkiye, a more stable and predictable actor,” the agency stated.

The FISU reported that the Kremlin responded in its usual manner – through pressure tactics, with the first attempt being a threat to raise gas prices.

“The response was unexpectedly firm: Armenian parliament speaker Alen Simonyan publicly promised to begin the process of withdrawing from the CSTO and the EAEU. The threat did not work,” the statement said.

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According to the agency, Kremlin strategists then resorted to another tool – equally absurd and revealing: Russia’s alcohol and tobacco regulator revoked the license of a major distributor of Armenian brandy on the Russian market, the Proshyan brandy factory.”

“Effectively, Moscow has deprived its own citizens of access to one of the world’s most well-known alcohol brands. In response, Armenia has only accelerated its rapprochement with regional countries, primarily Türkiye,” the FISU noted.

As reported, Panama is strengthening efforts to combat Russia’s “shadow fleet.”