Deployment of Russian EW systems near Narva may signal potential plans to strike Baltic states, expert says
Russia’s claims about the alleged use of Baltic states’ airspace for Ukrainian drone attacks may indicate that the Kremlin is preparing for escalation in that direction.
This was stated in an interview with Ukrinform by military expert and former SSU (Security Service of Ukraine) officer Ivan Stupak.
According to him, the Russian side is well aware of the flight routes used by Ukrainian drones heading toward Saint Petersburg and the Leningrad region, but does not disclose this information publicly.
“Some drones may pass over the territory of Belarus in a narrow strip along the border. As for the Baltic states, if this were a widespread phenomenon, there would already be numerous confirmations, including videos and photos,” the expert noted.
He did not rule out isolated incidents, but stressed that Moscow’s statements do not match the scale it claims.
At the same time, Stupak said there are several signs that Baltic states are being considered by Russia as a potential direction for operations.
In particular, he pointed to the deployment of electronic warfare (EW) systems near Narva.
“Since 2023, there has been a steady build-up of EW capabilities there. In 2025, a third site appeared. If there were about 50 recorded instances of use in 2023, in 2025 there were 13 times more,” the expert said.
In his assessment, Russia’s possible scenarios range from direct escalation involving drones and missiles to so-called hybrid operations.
“This could involve a scenario with the infiltration of armed groups, establishing control over local authorities, and creating pseudo-entities – similar to the events of 2014 in eastern Ukraine,” he said.
At the same time, according to Stupak, the key issue is not the availability of resources but a political decision by the Kremlin.
The expert also outlined factors that could push Russia toward escalation, including the situation in the Middle East and domestic political developments in the United States.
“These factors could objectively increase Russia’s confidence. In particular, changes in the oil market allow it to generate additional revenue,” he explained.
According to him, while Russian oil was previously sold at a significant discount, demand has now increased, creating additional financial capacity to continue the war.
Stupak also highlighted political signals coming from the United States.
“Rhetoric about a possible reduction of U.S. involvement in NATO is perceived in Moscow as a signal of a potential weakening of security guarantees for European allies,” he said.
According to the military expert, the combination of these factors could prompt the Kremlin to test the Alliance’s response.
“Russia may decide to test the system’s resilience and see what the reaction will be,” Stupak concluded.
As reported by Ukrinform, Stupak also claims that Ukraine is deliberately striking economically sensitive targets in Russia, creating significant financial losses for the aggressor state.
Photo: Wikipedia