Military expert: Russia using two new drafting schemes – via detention centers and universities
This was stated in an interview with Ukrinform by military expert and former SSU (Security Service of Ukraine) officer Ivan Stupak.
According to him, given the growing role of drones, Russian military losses may continue to increase.
“By June, we could reach around 40,000 eliminated invaders per month, possibly even more – depending on the expansion in drone numbers,” the expert said.
He added that the effectiveness of Ukrainian FPV drones is estimated at 80-90%.
“This means that out of 100 Russian soldiers moving toward the frontline, at best 20 make it, and at worst only 10,” Stupak explained.
At the same time, he noted that Russia is facing difficulties replenishing its personnel and is being forced to look for new ways to draft.
In particular, two main schemes are currently in use.
The first involves the law enforcement system. Whereas previously convicted prisoners were recruited, now the focus has shifted to suspects and defendants.
“Investigators from agencies such as the FSB, the Interior Ministry, and drug control services offer a deal: instead of several years in prison – sign a contract and serve at the front. After that, they promise to ‘wipe clean’ the individual’s record,” the expert said.
According to him, law enforcement officers receive financial rewards for each person recruited in this way.
The second scheme targets students. Estimates suggest that Russia plans to involve up to 4% of students in the war – about 40,000 people.
“Artificial difficulties are being created in the education process, including problems with passing exams, while at the same time students are being encouraged to sign so-called ‘student contracts’,” Stupak said.
He stressed that these are effectively standard military contracts without fixed terms.
“A person either remains in the armed forces for an indefinite period or dies,” the expert added.
Commenting on estimates that Russia could draft around 400,000 more people this year, Stupak said such figures are not unrealistic.
“That’s roughly 30,000-35,000 per month – the level they are already trying to reach. However, in reality, they regularly fall short of this target,” he concluded.
As previously reported by Ukrinform, Russian authorities are increasingly resorting to covert forced mobilization measures amid heavy battlefield losses and low recruitment rates.
