Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, Emirati Scholar

Iran’s aggression against the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC — Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, and Oman) came as a surprise, as the Arabian monarchies had long sought to avoid being drawn into regional conflict. They consistently maintained political contacts with Tehran, developed trade and economic cooperation, and even acted as intermediaries in Iran’s contacts with the West.

Yet this policy of constructive neutrality did not spare them from Iranian missiles and drones, which struck the capitals and major cities of the Gulf monarchies—places that for years had cultivated a reputation as some of the safest in the world.

To discuss the outbreak of Iranian aggression, the development of the situation and prospects for its resolution, as well as Ukraine’s support, Ukrinform spoke with prominent Emirati academic and political scientist Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, who lives in Dubai (UAE).

THE IRANIAN ATTACK WAS A SHOCK FOR THE UAE

Q: The UAE and other GCC countries have faced direct Iranian aggression. Iran is attacking Emirati cities with missiles and drones. How do you assess and perceive these actions by Tehran?

A: Iran’s attack came as a shock to us. The Emirates had neither been accustomed to nor had any experience with this kind of aggression involving missiles and drones—especially not on such a scale and with such hostility.

That said, it is surprising that Iran targeted the UAE so heavily—more than any other Arab country of the Gulf. Iran struck the Emirates even more intensely than Israel. So yes, it was truly shocking.

For Iran, the Emirates had long served as the “lungs” and the “gateway” to the outside world. From the UAE’s side, Tehran had always encountered cooperation and good-neighborly relations. Given this, such aggression was particularly shocking.

In my view, after this, the perception of Iran—both at the official level and within society—will never be the same. We will never forget this aggression. Iran has been our neighbor for centuries. However, over the past 47 years—since the 1979 Islamic Revolution—it has increasingly been perceived as a threat to the Gulf, to our security and stability. From now on, Iran will be seen as the most dangerous enemy of the UAE and other Gulf Arab states.

Q: Until these events, the Emirates—and Dubai in particular—were widely regarded as an island of security and stability in a turbulent world full of conflicts and injustice. How did Emiratis react to the air-raid sirens and the sounds of incoming missiles and drones?

A: In the first days, there was a sense of confusion as we saw and heard missiles and drones arriving from Iran. In our entire history, we had never experienced anything like this.

At the same time, the UAE as a state was prepared for such a brutal attack. Our leadership ensured that we possess some of the most advanced air-defense systems in the world. For Emiratis, the attack itself came as a shock, but our air defenses were ready and successfully repelled the assault.

For nearly two weeks now, our servicemen have continued to intercept waves of Iranian missiles and drones, including Shahed-136 drones. The interception rate ranges from 93% to 96%. Nevertheless, some civilian sites have been hit, including damage caused by falling debris and fragments from intercepted missiles and drones. Just as the Iranian attack was shocking, the effectiveness of our air defenses has been an equally striking revelation.

We have built a reliable air-defense network, and every dollar invested in defense has proven worthwhile. After this experience, the UAE believes in its own capabilities more than ever before.

Q: The oil market has already reacted to the destabilization around the Strait of Hormuz. However, far less is being talked about the food and water security of the GCC countries. Are the Emirates prepared for challenges related to supplying their population with water and food?

A: True, the most of the discussion today is about oil, which is understandable given its importance for the global economy—especially for China, Asia, and indeed every country in the world. But as you know, the Emirates have moved away from a complete and painful dependence on oil revenues. Today, the UAE has one of the most diversified economies in multiple sectors.

As for the challenges posed by this war and the aggression against the Emirates, our government has of course taken steps to ensure supplies of water, food, and medicine for the population. We maintain strategic reserves sufficient for at least two years—not only for our own population but also for other Gulf Arab states. This has long been part of our contingency planning for crisis situations.

WE ARE IN THE SAME TRENCH WITH YOU. THE UAE WILL NEVER FORGET UKRAINE’S COURAGEOUS POSITION AND SUPPORT

Q: Ukraine immediately expressed solidarity with the UAE and condemned Iran’s aggression against your country. Footage of strikes on residential buildings instantly evokes memories among Ukrainians of scenes we see almost every day in our own cities. After speaking with leaders in the region, including the President of the UAE, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukraine is ready to assist in countering Iranian drones.

Ukraine has accumulated significant experience and developed effective technologies for neutralizing UAV threats such as Shahed drones. Iran is an ally of Russia, which has helped the Iranians modernize their military technologies. In your opinion, is it time for the GCC countries to move away from neutrality and take a more decisive stance toward Russian aggression? How do you assess the possibility of diplomatic pressure on Russia to achieve a ceasefire so that Ukraine could focus on assisting the GCC countries?

A: The UAE is home to around 200 nationalities. In that sense, the Emirates host almost the entire world. An attack on the UAE is therefore, in a way, an attack on the whole world, considering that people from 200 different nations live here. It is therefore not surprising that the international community has expressed strong solidarity with the UAE. For the past two weeks, our president has been constantly receiving phone calls from world leaders. They all express solidarity and offer assistance in defending the country, believing that by doing so they are protecting their own citizens who reside in the Emirates.

Among the countries that immediately offered their support was Ukraine—a country that itself is defending against full-scale aggression. Your country proposed assistance, including sharing its successful experience in countering Iranian Shahed-136 drones, which Russia widely uses against civilian infrastructure and energy facilities.

Every Emirati is grateful for and deeply appreciates Ukraine’s help. I believe that after this important initiative, solidarity with Ukraine will only grow stronger. Considering that Russia is helping Iran and Iran is helping Russia, we are in the same trench with you. We share a common enemy.

We are grateful to President Volodymyr Zelensky, to the Ukrainian people, and to Ukraine for the courageous stance and support that we will never forget.

Q: How do you assess and envision a long-term settlement of the situation with Iran?

A: Iran is a neighbor—just as Russia is a neighbor for you. This is a historical and geographical reality that cannot be changed. Iran is located only about 100 kilometers from us. We have long-standing and extensive economic, trade, and social ties. For example, the UAE is Iran’s second-largest trading partner.

Iran has occupied three Emirati islands—Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb, and Abu Musa—yet the UAE has never severed contacts with the Iranian side.

In the long term, I believe cooperation with Tehran will depend on Iran’s future after Ali Khamenei, as well as on the outcome of this war.

However, Iran’s future is difficult to predict. What is clear is that the country is currently facing one of the most difficult periods in its history, marked by a complex internal situation and severe international isolation. Iran stands at the edge of an abyss and seems close to falling into it—but it may also manage to avoid that fate. Ultimately, the outcome of the war will determine the contours of a settlement both in the short and the long term.

THE UAE IS BUILDING ITS STRATEGY ON SELF-DEFENSE

Q: How realistic is the scenario involving a direct military confrontation between the GCC countries and Iran?

A: Iranian aggression has now been ongoing for two weeks. Despite thousands of missiles and drones launched at us, the UAE and other GCC countries have not fired a single shot toward Iran. Our approach is based on the understanding that we do not want to escalate the situation further. At this stage, our strategy is focused on self-defense, and I consider it unlikely that we will shift from self-defense to an offensive posture.

However, as our president has stated, patience has its limits. If these attacks continue, no scenario can be ruled out. At the same time, all our decisions will be guided by the provisions of the UN Charter, particularly Article 51, which affirms the legitimate right to self-defense. For now, however, a military escalation is not the primary scenario.

DISCUSSIONS ABOUT AN “ARAB NATO” ARE ALREADY UNDERWAY

Q: How might the security architecture in the Gulf region change? As is well known, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) was originally created with the Iranian threat in mind. Do you foresee something like an Arab NATO emerging?

A: An external threat always strengthens cooperation among Arab countries. The GCC was established in 1981 precisely to address external threats, including those posed by Iran. In light of Iran’s aggression, cooperation among the Gulf Arab states will undoubtedly intensify—especially in the areas of security, defense, and foreign policy.

As for the idea of an “Arab NATO,” it is indeed possible that the time has come to move beyond cooperation within the GCC framework toward the creation of a formal military alliance to confront our most dangerous common adversary—Iran. When and how this might happen remains an open question and ultimately depends on decisions taken by our leaders. However, discussions on this issue are already underway.

Vitalii Fedianin, Kyiv–Dubai