Austrian expert: After summer it will become clear whether Russians retain offensive potential
The Russian army did not achieve its goals in winter, and after summer it will become clear whether it will be able to maintain its offensive potential.
This opinion was expressed in an interview with Ukrinform by military expert and lecturer at the Austrian National Defense Academy Gustav Gressel.
When asked whether the Russians had achieved their winter goals on the front, he replied: “No. Russia's goals for the winter were to create favorable starting positions for encircling Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, and Kostiantynivka. And they have not made significant progress in this regard. A little, but not much.”
He added that there are already signs of exhaustion among Russian troops in some areas of the front.
"What has happened near Kupiansk, and now in the area of the 36th Army, shows that Russian forces are already significantly exhausted. Added to this are internal organizational problems. For political reasons, the Russian army must always appear victorious and advancing, even if this is not actually the case. The situation is embellished accordingly in reports," Gressel noted.
The expert also pointed to systemic problems in the Russian army, including corruption and distortion of information in command reports.
"Corruption is also a factor. The appropriation of the monetary allowances of fallen soldiers by senior officers is part of this system. Therefore, the real level of losses is never acknowledged. Both near Kupiansk and during the recent Ukrainian counterattacks in the south, in the Zaporizhzhia region, it became clear that the Russian army had fewer personnel there than stated in their frontline reports. In fact, they should have already switched to defense there, rather than continuing the offensive. But the order was different: to move forward, to attack further. This made them vulnerable and led to these counterattacks," said the military analyst.
In his opinion, this is not yet a turning point, but it “shows that the Russians have an upper limit on personnel that cannot be easily exceeded.” “It also demonstrates that corruption and the practice of reporting to Putin only what he wants to hear, rather than what is actually happening on the front lines, have consequences,” Gressel added.
According to him, if Russian troop losses increase in the summer, this could affect the invaders' ability to continue their offensive. “If Ukraine manages to increase Russian losses further during the summer, this problem will become more serious. Then, in the fall, it will become clear whether the Russians still have offensive momentum or not,” Gressel said.
He believes that the Russian army will continue to attack and try to encircle the “fortification belt” in Donbas. “But this is a year-long project — it cannot be done quickly. The units that Russia is still able to use for the offensive are currently engaged. But it is becoming increasingly difficult to rebuild and reform them,” the expert noted.
According to the lecturer at the Austrian National Defense Academy, the assertion that Ukraine “has no chance” of surviving a war of attrition is not an axiom.
"Russia is waging a war of attrition. In such a war, the combat capability of one's own army should decline more slowly than that of the enemy. And on the Ukrainian side, after four years of war, the situation is also far from ideal — there are losses, worn-out equipment, and the death of experienced military personnel. The key question in a war of attrition is who will fall apart faster? The widespread pessimism that Ukraine has no chance of surviving is not an axiom. The question is still open," he said.
Gressel is convinced that some of the Ukrainian army's problems can be solved over the summer, “while the structural problems on the Russian side may become more pronounced.”
“I am cautiously optimistic,” he added.
As reported by Ukrinform, the Ukrainian Defense Forces eliminated nearly 92,500 Russian invaders during the three winter months, most of them with the help of drones.