Probability of direct US military intervention in Iran remains low — French expert

The probability of direct US military action against Iran remains low, particularly due to the high technical risks involved. At the same time, President Donald Trump's rhetoric may only strengthen the Iranian regime's position.

This was stated by Bruno Tertrais, Deputy Director of the Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique (Foundation for Strategic Research), in a comment to a Ukrinform correspondent.

"First of all, it would be much more difficult for the US Armed Forces compared to their actions in Venezuela. From a technical standpoint, it would be extremely risky. Additionally, the interests of the United States in Iran are not as immediate. Obviously, with Trump, almost anything is possible. Therefore, no scenario can be completely ruled out, but I sincerely believe that the probability of this is very low," he suggested.

The geopolitical expert recalled that the last US President to attempt a ground operation in Iran was Jimmy Carter in 1980. At that time, the so-called Operation Eagle Claw ended in disaster for the US and remains a “bad memory in American political culture.”

According to Tertrais, Trump's threats are also “counterproductive” because they play into the hands of Iranian leaders, whose power is based in particular on anti-Western, anti-American rhetoric. At the same time, the US can “facilitate” protests in Iran without direct intervention.

“Theoretically, yes, it is possible. The Americans have accustomed us to such operations since the beginning of the Cold War. However, the question is whether they currently have enough channels on the ground to establish an influential network. However, contributing in the form of communications assistance via Starlink satellites is entirely possible,” he noted.

Currently, according to Tertrais, there are many scenarios open in Iran, some of which could call into question the “very DNA of Khamenei's regime.”

"If there is no other figure like Khamenei, then who? If there is no religious authority, it means a change within the regime itself. I believe that at this stage, with numerous possible scenarios for the future, it is too early to predict what will happen to this regime in three months. But we are approaching a moment when the future of the regime is truly at stake," Tertrais concluded.

As a reminder, protests in Iran began on December 28 at the Grand Bazaar in Tehran following the depreciation of the Iranian currency to a record low.

As reported by Ukrinform, Trump is considering options for new strikes against Iran in response to the suppression of protests. He also said that the United States is ready to support Iran's aspirations for freedom.