Russia unable to prevent Ukraine from building gas reserves, expert says
Russia continues trying to disrupt gas production in Ukraine, but the aggressor state is incapable of preventing Ukraine from building sufficient natural gas reserves ahead of the next heating season.
This opinion was expressed on Ukrainian Radio by Hennadii Riabtsev, Chief Research Fellow at the National Institute for Strategic Studies, Ukrinform reports.
According to Riabtsev, gas prices have risen, but there is no significant gas shortage in Europe.
“There are supply issues with liquefied natural gas (LNG), particularly from the Middle East. However, European countries are actively filling their storage facilities, and Ukraine is replenishing its gas storage sites entirely through domestic production. Therefore, I do not see any obstacles to reaching the target indicators set by the government – 14.6 billion cubic meters of gas in storage as the optimal level and 13.2 billion cubic meters as the minimum acceptable level,” Riabtsev said.
At the same time, he noted that Russian attacks have temporarily halted operations at some facilities.
“After May 5, operations at several facilities in the Poltava region were suspended. There were also attacks on gas distribution stations. Nevertheless, we should still be able to accumulate all the reserves we need. I believe Russia is not capable of preventing us from building these reserves,” the expert said.
He stressed that the bulk of the gas stored in Ukraine’s underground facilities comes from domestic production and that large-scale gas imports are not currently planned.
“About 2 billion cubic meters could be injected into storage during the second half of the summer, but if everything proceeds according to plan, that is the maximum volume we will need. Much depends on whether Trump can stop the venture he has initiated and whether supplies from Qatar resume before the heating season begins. Even if that does not happen, Qatari gas accounted for less than 5% of Europe’s consumption,” Riabtsev added.
He also noted that global producers are capable of replacing the volumes that have temporarily disappeared from the market.
“Gas prices are higher than last year, but they are lower than in March and April of this year, when the main developments involving Iran were taking place. There are risks that must be taken into account, there are threats, and there is always a shortage of funds. One can imagine countless apocalyptic scenarios, but their likelihood remains low,” the expert said.
Riabtsev further pointed out that the European Union has significantly expanded its gas storage capacity.
“Everyone is trying to minimize risks associated with supply disruptions caused by extraordinary events. This has allowed the EU to remain relatively comfortable even after voluntarily reducing its reliance on Russian gas, which once accounted for 35–37% of the European market. Much of that gas came from joint ventures and entered the EU as compensation for investments European energy companies made in Russian gas production projects more than a decade ago.
“Today, gas supplies to Europe are diversified. There is no single dominant supplier on which Europe depends. Ukraine should also face no difficulties in purchasing gas because the necessary preparatory work has already been completed. There are supply routes through Poland, Romania, and Slovakia,” Riabtsev explained.
As reported by Ukrinform, Russia carried out 96 attacks on facilities belonging to the Naftogaz Group between January and April, targeting gas production and transportation infrastructure, district heating facilities, and fuel stations.