Energy deficit to slow economic growth this year by 0.4% – NBU

Ukraine's energy deficit is expected to increase to 6% this year, which will slow GDP growth by 0.4%.

Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Andriy Pyshnyy and his deputy, Volodymyr Lepushynskyi, stated this during a briefing on the central bank's monetary policy decisions in response to a question from an Ukrinform correspondent.

Pyshnyy noted that due to intensified Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, the electricity deficit rose to 7% in the fourth quarter of 2025. As a result, the NBU was forced to revise its forecasts for the energy deficit for the current year as well. Compared with the previous (October 2025) macroeconomic forecast, the projected deficit was increased from 3% to 6%.

"We understand that there is a high level of uncertainty in this area, so we will have to respond, including to a possible intensification of attacks on our energy infrastructure. However, as of now, given the conclusions of internal experts, consultations with colleagues from the Ministry of Energy and Ukrenergo, and business assessments, we have adjusted the projected energy deficit upward to around 6% in the new macroeconomic forecast," Pyshnyy said.

Lepushynskyi, in turn, explained that under the baseline scenario, the probability of which exceeds 50%, it is precisely the energy deficit that will slow economic growth this year by about 0.4%.

"That is, without energy shortages in 2026, the country's GDP could have grown not by 1.8%, as stated in our macroeconomic forecast, but by 2.2%. We also expect a negative impact from the residual effects of the deficit in 2027. Under this factor, economic growth will be slower by 0.1%," the official said.

He added that electricity shortages and businesses' spending on additional energy sources will affect both production costs and the provision of services, as well as reduce consumer demand.

Photo: National Bank of Ukraine