Oil prices stabilize amid possible peace deal between Ukraine and Russia

Oil prices stabilized after the largest weekly drop since early October as traders assessed the prospects of a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia, which could increase supply to an already well-supplied market.

Bloomberg reported this in an article, according to Ukrinform.

Brent held above $62 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate was near $58.

The report notes that crude has slumped this year, with futures on course for a fourth monthly loss in October, in what would be the longest losing run since 2023. The decline has been driven by expanded global output, including from OPEC+, with the International Energy Agency forecasting a record surplus for 2026.

Traders are monitoring whether a deal on Ukraine will materialize, and if sanctions on Russia will be lifted — developments that could inject more supply, Bloomberg writes.

"If we do reach an agreement here, and it's a very big if, the global glut gets a lot worse once sanctions are removed," said Robert Rennie, head of commodity research at Westpac Banking Corp.

Rennie expects Brent crude prices to remain below $65 per barrel and to decline through 2026.

In addition to the Russia-Ukraine war, traders were also tracking events in the Middle East. Israel stated that it killed Abu Ali Al-Tabtabai — Hezbollah chief of general staff, and the group's No. 2 — in a rare airstrike on Beirut, as an almost year-old ceasefire deal with the Lebanese government wavers.

Some closely watched metrics show near-term conditions becoming less tight. The prompt spread for WTI — the difference between its two nearest contracts — is 25 cents a barrel in backwardation, less than half the gap a month ago. Looking ahead, key members at OPEC and its allies plan to meet on November 30 to assess policy. The group has been reactivating idled capacity to recapture market share, but has signaled a pause for the first quarter of 2026, the report notes.

As Ukrinform reported, oil prices fell for 1.5% on Friday. This was the third consecutive session of declines amid U.S. pressure for a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, which could increase supply in the global market.

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