Russia becomes increasingly dependent on China – intelligence
Russia’s economy is growing ever more dependent on the export of energy resources and metals, most of which are sold to China.
According to Ukrinform, the report was released by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine.
Over the first nine months of 2025, trade between Russia and China fell to 163.6 billion dollars, a decline of 9.4% compared with the same period in 2024.
In 2025, both Chinese exports to Russia decreased by 11.3% (to 73.6 billion dollars) and Russian supplies to China fell by 7.7% (to 90 billion dollars).
The primary driver of this decline was the drop in energy prices. The value of Russia’s energy exports to China fell by 18.9%, or 14 billion dollars, between January and September. Oil exports decreased by 8.1% in physical volumes and by 21% in monetary terms due to lower Brent prices.
Another factor was the oversaturation of the Russian market with Chinese-made cars. Following record imports in 2024, demand more than halved, to 56%.
Additional pressure stemmed from logistics disruptions. In autumn, lines of trucks formed at the China–Kazakhstan border, and transportation costs from China to Russia increased: by rail—by 25% (to 5,000 dollars), and by road—by 35% (to 15,000 dollars for a 20-ton truck). Several maritime operators, including CStar Line (UAE) and STF Shipping (China), reduced their routes to Russian ports due to financial restrictions.
“The russian economy’s dependence on exports of energy carriers and metals, most of which are sold to China, makes it increasingly vulnerable to fluctuations in demand on the Chinese market and increases its dependence on Beijing,” the intelligence service concluded.
As reported by Ukrinform, Russia’s revenues from oil and petroleum product exports declined again in October due to reduced export volumes and falling prices amid sanctions and Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries.
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