Ukraine's attacks on oil refineries forced Russia to maximize oil exports - Bloomberg
Sea deliveries of crude oil from Russia have remained close to a 16-month high over the past four weeks, as Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries have forced flows to be redirected to export terminals.
This was reported by Bloomberg, according to Ukrinform.
It is noted that the average volume of shipments from the country's ports over four weeks was 3.57 million barrels per day, which is approximately 80,000 barrels per day below the highest level since May 2024.
It is noted that the increase in shipments occurred against the backdrop of intensified drone strikes on Russian oil refineries by Ukraine, which has carried out attacks on at least 15 refineries in the European part of Russia over the past two months.
According to estimates by the multinational company JPMorgan Chase & Co., these attacks have caused oil refining volumes in Russia to fall below 5 million barrels per day, the lowest level since April 2022. The decline has been accompanied by a sharp increase in crude oil supplies, which have risen by approximately 500,000 barrels per day over four weeks since mid-August.
It is noted that Russia will not be able to redirect much more crude oil for export if the attacks on refineries intensify, as reserve capacity at crude oil export terminals appears to be very limited.
According to Bloomberg's observations, two of the three ports that are most likely to handle oil from non-operational refineries — Primorsk on the Baltic Sea and Novorossiysk on the Black Sea — are now close to their maximum capacity. Although the third port, Ust-Luga, also on the Baltic Sea, has the nominal capacity to export more, its deliveries throughout the year remain well below the October 2024 peak. These figures mean that the three western ports have only about 165,000-265,000 barrels per day of spare capacity.
According to an analysis of price fluctuations for various grades of oil, the cost of Russian exports averaged about USD 1.43 billion per week for the 28 days leading up to October 5, which is USD 34 million per week less than in the previous period.
As reported by Ukrinform, Russia's oil and gas industry is doomed to cut production and reduce profitability if international sanctions continue.