ISW analyzes Putin’s goals behind June 2 mass strike on Ukraine

Russia’s mass strike on Ukraine on the night of June 1 to 2 was aimed at taking advantage of Patriot interceptor shortages and distract from Russia’s inability to secure its deep rear from Ukrainian long-range strikes, as well as from its battlefield setbacks.

According to Ukrinform, this is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Analysts note that prior to the attack, the Kremlin attempted to frame it as a legitimate response. In particular, Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated claims that Ukraine’s May 21 to 22 strike against a Russian Rubikon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies headquarters in occupied Starobilsk, Luhansk region, hit an exclusively civilian object.

Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that after a June 1 meeting, Putin ordered a retaliatory strike. The following day, Russia’s Ministry of Defense claimed that the June 2 attack was in response to the Starobilsk strike and listed military and defense industry targets it allegedly hit.

However, ISW analysts emphasize that Russian strikes caused significant damage to Ukraine’s civilian and critical infrastructure and resulted in numerous civilian casualties.

“Russia’s use of cluster munitions and its conduct of double-tap missile strikes targeting first responders continues to demonstrate a Russian strike pattern aimed at inflicting maximum civilian casualties and damage to civilian infrastructure... Russian claims that recent strikes are in response to a single strike against occupied Starobilsk are attempting to obfuscate the reality that Russia would have very likely conducted these strikes anyway,” ISW assessed.

The report adds that the June 2 attack is part of an escalation in Russian strikes following the so-called May 9–11 ceasefire period, which exposed Russia’s inability to protect its deep rear from Ukrainian attacks, after Putin reportedly asked Ukraine to refrain from strikes during Victory Day celebrations in Moscow.

Analysts also recall that Russian officials previously threatened strikes on Ukrainian decision-making centers in Kyiv in response to attacks on Russian territory during the ceasefire period. Since then, Russia has continued systematic strikes that disproportionately affect civilian areas in the capital.

“Putin is using massive strike packages against Kyiv in an effort to break Ukraine’s will to fight as well as to disguise his weakness, particularly his inability to secure Russian territory, including Russia’s capital, from Ukraine’s deep strikes. He is also seeking to recover from the embarrassment of having had to ask Ukraine permission to hold even a dramatically scaled-down Victory Day parade on May 9,” ISW concluded.

As reported by Ukrinform, Ukraine’s Permanent Representative to the UN Andrii Melnyk exposed Russia’s fabricated narrative about the events in Starobilsk, which “is collapsing under the weight of its own contradictions.”