Ukraine’s strikes on Russian logistics could undermine impact of new mobilization – ISW
Ukraine has launched a successful campaign of drone strikes against Russian logistics both along the frontline and at medium range, which is limiting Russia’s ability to transport personnel to the front.
According to Ukrinform, this was reported by the ISW.
“The effect of a potential Russian involuntary reserve call-up on the battlefield remains unclear given Russia’s growing requirements for manpower and the fact that Ukrainian drone strikes are inhibiting Russian troop movement towards the frontline,” the report said.
ISW analysts note that Ukrainian Armed Forces units significantly intensified their intermediate-range strike campaign in spring 2026 and have already achieved notable operational results. The main one is degrading Russia’s ability to use the key Russian ground lines of communication connecting Russia with occupied Crimea, including the M-14 highway (Rostov–Crimea), as well as supply routes linking occupied southern Ukraine with Donetsk.
“Mid-range strikes are actively inhibiting Russia’s ability to transport personnel to the frontlines as well as to supply and hold frontline positions, which would significantly reduce the number of additional reservists who could even get to the frontlines where they could impact Russian ground operations under current conditions,” the ISW noted.
Ukrainian strikes at the frontline are also hindering Russian infiltration missions. A Kremlin-linked military blogger said on May 26 that effective Ukrainian drone reconnaissance and frontline strikes had undermined the success of infiltration missions that Russian forces had relied on over the past several months.
The ISW also notes that Ukrainian forces are achieving temporary tactical advantages in drone use in some sectors of the front.
Analysts believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to remain committed to the ongoing contract recruitment campaign. At the same time, discussions in Moscow about potential involuntary reserve call-up appear to reflect Russia’s weaknesses, as it struggles with poor battlefield results, worsening economic consequences of the war, declining recruitment levels, and growing public dissatisfaction.
“The Kremlin appears to remain committed to defining its main advantage over Ukraine as overwhelming numbers, but Ukraine’s tactical drone superiority throughout the theater and mid-range strike campaign have neutralized this advantage for now, inflicting disproportionately high personnel and equipment losses on Russian forces,” the ISW emphasized.
In addition, analysts note that new waves of contract recruitment in Russia are likely being hindered by the lack of significant battlefield gains and rising casualty rates.
The ISW suggests that any involuntary mobilization campaign would likely be significantly less popular among the Russian population now, as the war generates more tension and dissatisfaction than it did in mid-to-late 2025, when Russian forces were achieving limited tactical gains.
As reported by Ukrinform, Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said that Ukraine and Russia are competing for superiority in three areas: drone systems, technology, and economic capacity.