Belarus will face preemptive strikes if it prepares attack on Ukraine – military expert
If Belarus begins to show signs of preparing military aggression against Ukraine, “no one will wait,” according to Ivan Tymochko, head of the Council of Reservists of the Ukrainian Ground Forces.
He made the statement during an interview on Ukrainian Radio, Ukrinform reports.
"Geographically and climatically, Belarus is not the kind of country that can be used as a powerful staging ground for an offensive. For defense, yes, because it has very forested and swampy terrain. But it lacks strategic depth," Tymochko said.
He added that since the lifting of U.S. sanctions on Belarus, a flow of critically needed materials for Russia has entered the country, while "Putin understands that any escalation of hostilities from Belarusian territory against Ukraine or NATO countries would likely result in the closure of all possible channels and routes."
Tymochko stressed that the likelihood of Belarus being drawn into the war is therefore no more than "blackmail."
"If Belarus begins to concentrate forces and prepare for an attack, as Russia once did, everyone understands that preemptive strikes will most likely follow. And both Lukashenko and Putin understand this," he said.
The expert stressed that the Belarusian army is currently unlikely to be capable of conducting even operational-level military operations.
"Although it is possible for them to carry out sabotage or provocative actions from Belarusian territory," he said.
Tymochko added that the current number of troops in Belarus does not allow for any meaningful large-scale military operations.
"As of today, I am not convinced that Belarus is capable of conducting even properly executed operational-level military actions. They can start a military operation, but how it ends for them and what consequences it brings later – even Lukashenko probably cannot say," he said.
He estimated that the Belarusian armed forces number around 60,000 personnel in total.
"But that is across the entire country, and they need to maintain that force everywhere. They have not declared general mobilization. Yes, there is a Russian contingent there, but it is only around 2,000 to 5,000 troops. That is not enough to force Belarus into war. Moreover, a significant portion of Belarusian military stockpiles has already been used by Russia for its own needs," he added.
Earlier, it was reported that Belarus began exercises on Monday, May 18, involving military units practicing the combat use of nuclear weapons and nuclear support systems.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has also said that Russia is intensifying contacts with Alexander Lukashenko in an attempt to draw Belarus into new offensive operations, including potential attacks from Belarusian territory toward Ukraine's Chernihiv and Kyiv regions or even against NATO countries. He also stressed that Ukraine is strengthening its Chernihiv-Kyiv axis in response.