Russia unable to sharply increase number of drones used in its strikes on Ukraine – expert
The main limiting factor in attacks using Shahed drones, besides the availability of munitions, remains the number of launch sites available to the aggressor state.
According to Ukrinform, this was stated on Ukrainian Radio by aviation expert and member of the Public Council under the State Aviation Service, Bohdan Dolintse.
"If we talk about the scale of Russian attacks, there is actually nothing new here. Since 2022, Russia has had the capacity to produce up to 120 ballistic and cruise missiles per month. We see that, overall, seven attacks with 20 missiles each correspond to this figure. Of these, usually around 50 are ballistic weapons, 60–70 are cruise missiles, and a small number are North Korean missiles," the expert said.
According to him, as of today, by various estimates, Russia can produce more than 5,000 medium- and long-range drones per month.
"In principle, the volume of attacks corresponds to Russia's production capacity for such systems. If I'm not mistaken, about two-thirds of that number are 'Shaheds' — that is, more than 3,000 units," Dolintse noted.
He emphasized that another important factor is the time required for Russia to prepare such attacks.
"To launch an attack with 700 drones, it is necessary to form a base of 700 targets. Or at least, if several drones strike the same target, we can estimate at least 300–350 targets. Another key factor: each drone must be prepared before the attack — its route programmed, the route developed, pre-flight preparations carried out, and the warhead loaded. These warheads must also be produced," he explained.
Regarding the frequency of attacks, he said that carrying out such large-scale strikes seven times a month is likely the upper limit Russia can sustain.
"Despite the ability to produce drones in larger quantities, it is highly likely that Russia cannot produce a greater number of warheads in the form it currently uses. Alternatively, it would have to switch to simpler and less powerful munitions, which could allow it to increase the number of drones," he added.
Dolintse stressed that, as of now, the biggest limiting factor—besides munitions—remains the number of launch sites.
"In order to launch 400 drones, we must understand that from each of the available launch sites, several waves of launches must be carried out, each consisting of 30 to 80 drones, depending on the personnel involved," he said.
As reported, Ukraine's air defense forces neutralized 116 out of 143 drones launched by Russian forces in an attack starting on the evening of April 20.