Kremlin signals unwillingness to 'accept anything less than Ukrainian capitulation' – ISW
The Kremlin has shown no indication that Russia's leadership is prepared to "accept anything less than Ukrainian capitulation."
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said this in a new Russian offensive campaign assessment seen by Ukrinform.
The report notes that Kremlin voices clarified Russia's position on negotiations following Western reporting about the October 17 Trump-Zelensky meeting in order to reiterate that Russia remains committed to addressing the alleged "root causes" of the war and is unwilling to agree to a ceasefire. Analysts highlighted comments by Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov and Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova.
ISW recalled that the Kremlin had repeatedly referenced the need to eliminate the alleged "root causes" of the war in Ukraine, which Kremlin officials have defined as NATO's eastward expansion and Ukraine's alleged discrimination against Russian-speakers.
"The Kremlin uses discussions about these root causes to forward Russia's original war demands for Ukrainian neutrality, the removal of the legitimate government in Ukraine, the installation of a pro-Russian government, and changes to NATO's Open Door Policy. Kremlin officials have also repeatedly rejected Trump's and Zelensky's proposals for a ceasefire on the grounds that negotiations for a final peace settlement must come first. The Kremlin is likely reemphasizing Russia's commitment to its original war aims against the backdrop of Western reporting about the October 17 Trump-Zelensky meeting in order to clarify that Trump's position coming out of that meeting is unacceptable for the Kremlin, particularly ahead of the meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio," the ISW report states.
Analysts also noted that the Kremlin is priming the Russian people for a full victory in Ukraine whatever the cost – a domestic effort that is at odds with Putin's reported willingness to make territorial concessions.
"The Kremlin has consistently reiterated throughout the war that Russia’s war demands remain unchanged and has communicated to the Russian people that Russia will achieve all these goals in Ukraine, whether militarily or diplomatically. The Kremlin has not prepared Russian society to accept anything less than these demands. […] The Kremlin has conditioned Russians to expect that Russia’s illegal annexation of parts of Ukraine is permanent and that Russia cannot make any territorial concessions to Ukraine," ISW said.
According to the experts, this further demonstrates that Russia has no intention of retreating from its long-standing demands in any future peace negotiations.
On October 17, Presidents Trump and Zelensky met at the White House, where the main topic of discussion was ways to pressure Russia to achieve peace. According to Reuters, Trump encouraged the Ukrainian president to cede certain territories to Russia during the meeting.
Trump later stated that he had not suggested that Zelensky hand over the entire Donetsk region to Russia.
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