Russia is unable to maintain its ports in Arctic — intelligence

This was reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, according to Ukrinform.

Over the next five years alone, ports along the NSR will require dredging totaling about 60 million cubic meters. Similar work is also needed in ports in other regions of the Russian Federation, which only compounds the scale of the problem.

Previously, Moscow systematically relied on foreign contractors who had the necessary fleet and technology for large-scale dredging.

The sanctions regime has effectively blocked this channel. Russia has not created any alternatives in the form of its own capabilities: statements about the design and construction of dredgers at the Admiralty shipyards in St. Petersburg remain declarations without practical results.

The real figures are telling. In 2025, Russia was able to dredge only about 2.2 million cubic meters in all of the country's ports on its own. Given the stated needs, this is a marginal amount that does not significantly alter the situation.

Theoretically, Moscow is counting on China's participation in the development of northern port infrastructure.

However, Beijing's interests are fundamentally different. The PRC is interested in continuous transit along the entire route of the Northern Sea Route, rather than in the development of individual Russian ports as logistics hubs. In the coming years, this means one simple reality: large ships will pass by without stopping.

Even if China agrees to participate in dredging works, it will be Beijing that determines where and in which ports they will take place.

“For Moscow, this means a loss of control over spatial development, the inability to provide targeted support to individual regions, and de facto dependence on external influence. Overall, the situation demonstrates a systemic gap between the RF’s stated Arctic ambitions and its actual capabilities,” the intelligence noted.

As reported by Ukrinform, at the end of December 2025, Russia deployed its entire fleet of eight nuclear icebreakers in the Arctic for the first time, as it seeks to keep the Northern Sea Route accessible, given that it has become critically important for the transportation of energy resources amid Western sanctions and restrictions on the Russian fleet.

However, the Russian icebreaker fleet is rapidly aging, with at least three icebreakers expected to reach the end of their service life within the next two years.

Photo: szru.gov.ua