Number of infected people in Ukraine may reach 60,000 by end of April - experts

08.04.2020 09:52

Ukrinform

The peak incidence of coronavirus disease (Covid-19) in Ukraine is expected between April 14 and April 23, according to forecasts made by the World Data Center at Kyiv Polytechnic Institute.

"The results of the scenario simulation show that for Ukraine, the feature of the rate of change in the number of Covid-19 cases gets its maximum at day 51-52 from the first registered patient, namely in the second half of April - April 22-23. After this maximum is reached, as a result of severe quarantine measures, the previous trend is to be 'broken' in the country and the rate of increase in the incidence of cases is to fall. According to the pessimistic scenario, the number of infected people may reach 60,000 by the end of April, and human losses may reach 4,500 people. According to the optimistic scenario, which is possible in the case of a number of important circumstances, including effective measures by the authorities, the said figures could be reduced by at least three times," the university's press service reported.

The World Data Center for Geoinformatics and Sustainable Development at Kyiv Polytechnic Institute operates under the auspices of the International Science Council. It is one of 53 world data centers located in 13 countries that accumulate, analyze and process large volumes of research data. Recently, one of the most urgent tasks of the International Science Council and its subordinate world data centers has been to study the coronavirus pandemic in the world and to apply cutting edge science to overcome it.

Working on this strategy, Ukrainian scientists from the World Data Center for Geoinformatics and Sustainable Development analyzed the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the Ukrainian economy, developed a predictive mathematical model, conducted computer simulations of this phenomenon and developed scenarios for possible developments.

The results of this study can be used by the Ukrainian authorities to develop a plan of action aimed at preventing the pandemic and overcoming its aftermath.

The WDC-Ukraine COVID-19 Dashboard, an interactive panel for tracking and predicting the spread of coronavirus in Ukraine, has also been published on the website of the World Data Center.

The dashboard was developed on the basis of data from the World Health Organization, the JHU Center for Systems Science and Engineering, the Office of the President of Ukraine, and the National Health Service of Ukraine.

A total of 1,668 coronavirus cases were recorded in Ukraine as of April 8. Fifty-two people died, and 35 patients recovered.