Military expert: Escalation possible in Middle East after April 15

This was stated in an interview with Ukrinform by military expert and former SSU (Security Service of Ukraine) officer Ivan Stupak.

Commenting on reports regarding U.S. President Donald Trump’s actions toward Iran, the expert noted that they referred to a scenario involving large-scale strikes on the country’s critical infrastructure.

“In fact, this was about an attempt to significantly weaken Iran by destroying key facilities. However, if we assess the outcome, the set objectives were not achieved,” Stupak said.

According to him, the consequences of such actions also had a negative impact on the global economy.

At the same time, the expert stressed that Iran, despite losses, has retained a strategically important leverage tool – control over the Strait of Hormuz.

“Before the war, about 130 vessels passed through the strait daily – roughly 47,000 per year. Even hypothetical transit fees could generate tens of billions of dollars,” he explained.

Stupak assessed that Tehran may try to use this factor as a long-term economic and political lever.

Discussing further developments, the expert predicted a possible escalation.

“Back in late March, amphibious ships carrying U.S. Marines departed from California toward the region. Similar forces are already present there, and further reinforcement is expected,” he said.

According to Stupak, additional units, including airborne troops, are also being redeployed.

“In total, around 60,000 U.S. troops may already be concentrated in the region. These forces could potentially be used for active operations, including increasing pressure on Iran,” he added.

He did not rule out that the situation could escalate after April 15.

“There are signs of preparation for possible more active actions. However, it should be understood that this is the realm of high politics, and decisions can change very quickly,” the expert concluded.

As reported by Ukrinform, according to CNN, U.S. military forces began a naval blockade of Iranian ports at 15:00 Kyiv time after mediation efforts via Pakistan ended without satisfactory results.

U.S. President Donald Trump warned Iran of the destruction of its military vessels if they approach the American “blockade” of Iranian ports.

Photo: U.S. Naval Forces Central Command