Trump may impose symbolic sanctions against Russia – German expert
This opinion was expressed in a comment to Ukrinform by Stefan Meister, Head of the Center for Order and Governance in Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP).
“I am skeptical that Trump will do anything, because so far he has done nothing and generally does not want to impose sanctions against Russia. At the same time, he would lose face if he did nothing now, as from the Kremlin’s perspective, he would look weak. So he has to do something, and I think it will be something symbolic, but nothing that would really harm Russia,” Meister believes.
He suggested that it could be something similar to the case with India, when the issue in the end was not related to Ukraine but rather to Indian-American relations. Yet even if some measures are applied, the expert is convinced that this will not stop the Russians. Putin believes he can seize more territory now; he sees the West divided, and therefore, he is ready to pay a high price to achieve his goals. This is also confirmed by the intensification of attacks on Ukraine in recent days.
“So I believe all these negotiations [regarding reaching a peace agreement] lead nowhere,” Meister said, adding that Trump’s reputation had been damaged after the summit in Alaska as well as after the SCO Summit in China.
Equally unhelpful, in the expert’s view, are statements that the details of deploying peacekeepers on the territory of Ukraine should only be discussed after a ceasefire is achieved. In the case of Germany, the option of sending personnel to monitor the ceasefire is not considered seriously at all.
“The German party, the government, does not want to talk about it because it lacks majority support; it has no domestic political support. Therefore, it looks for arguments to avoid this topic,” the analyst explained.
He, personally, on the contrary, considers it necessary to talk about this already now to increase pressure on Putin.
“We must not allow Russia to influence security guarantees. This is an absurd discussion — that Russia must agree. Of course, Russia should not give any consent. Security guarantees concern Ukraine, not Russia, and they must not be coordinated with Russia,” Meister stressed.
He is convinced that Putin will do everything possible to prevent European troops from being deployed on the territory of Ukraine. The Kremlin leader is not interested in this, and his stance has not changed.
“And Germany, as we have seen before, will hesitate until the very end about whether to send troops or not. I do not believe that Germany will send ground troops. It will do everything else, but not this, because neither society nor politics is ready for it,” the expert noted with regret, adding that Berlin would be ready to assist financially, strengthening air defense, and training more Ukrainian soldiers.
Meister believes that despite all the discussions, we are not moving closer to real security guarantees, because Putin wants to resolve everything militarily rather than through negotiations. At the same time, partners must create pressure by demonstrating what they are prepared to do, since it would be a mistake to say that all issues will be discussed later.
As reported, French President Emmanuel Macron, after a meeting of the Coalition of the Willing, announced that 26 countries had pledged to participate in providing security guarantees for Ukraine — on land, at sea, or in the air.
Photo: The White House
