Pro-Kremlin experts admit Russia’s economy on brink of collapse – intel

This was reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine (FISU), according to Ukrinform.

The institutions in question are Kremlin-linked: the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, the Higher School of Economics, and the Central Bank of Russia.

According to FISU, the composite leading indicator of the economy entering recession since November 2025 has exceeded 0.44, with a critical threshold of 0.12.

The symmetric indicator of recovery from recession fell to 0.05 in November 2025, compared to 0.10 in October, remaining well below the critical level of 0.35.

“This means not only a high probability of recession, but also extremely low chances of a quick recovery,” the intelligence report notes.

The agency added that analysts warn of the risk of a prolonged downturn lasting over a year.

The industrial sector is showing a steady decline. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI index for January 2026 remains below 50 points, in the reduction zone. Profitability in industry has fallen from 20% to 12% since September 2024 and continues to decline.

Consumer confidence is collapsing. The Russian research organization Levada Center reports that the economic expectations index fell to 113 points in January, down from 140 in 2024. The consumer sentiment index returned to late-2022 levels – 98 points – indicating prevailing pessimism among Russians.

The baseline scenario for 2026, according to estimates by Russian institutions themselves, is a further slowdown amid weak GDP growth and declining investment, with a real risk of technical recession

As previously reported by Ukrinform, trade turnover between the EU and Russia has fallen to the lowest levels in recorded history.