Belarus’ economic weakness becomes systemic - intel

According to Ukrinform, this was reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine.

The weakness of the Belarusian economy at the beginning of the year is becoming systemic and cannot be reduced to individual problems in certain sectors.

According to experts from the Belarusian Economy Monitoring project, the country is entering a period when even the absence of new shocks will mean stagnation, and any deterioration in external conditions will mean a rapid decline.

“Formally, Belarus ended last year with GDP growth of 1.3%, but this figure masks a sharp decline in economic momentum,” the Foreign Intelligence Service noted.

Throughout the year, growth rates declined steadily: from 0.8% in the third quarter to 0.4% in the fourth. As a result, in the first quarter of 2026, GDP is forecast to only repeat the level of a year ago due to weak demand in the Russian market.

The main blow falls on industry, which has turned from a source of support into a source of pressure on the entire economy.

At the end of the year, industrial production fell by 1.8%. Even the growth in sales of potash fertilizers and Russian oil supplies to Belarusian refineries could not compensate for the collapse of key enterprises, in particular the Minsk Tractor Plant and the Belarusian Metallurgical Plant. In the first quarter, the decline in industry may deepen to 3–5%.

Counting on external support is also not working. The Russian economy, on which Belarusian exports critically depend, shows no signs of recovery, and the forecasts for it remain even more pessimistic. Domestic demand is unable to compensate for this collapse: in 2025, its growth rate fell by half, from 12% to 6%.

Monetary policy creates additional risks. The National Bank's focus on stimulating economic activity increases the likelihood of monetary easing as early as the first quarter, which directly threatens inflationary destabilization. Core inflation exceeded 7% at the end of the year, and the situation is likely to worsen in the coming months.

“Taken together, these factors form a scenario in which negative developments for the Belarusian economy are not a risk but a baseline forecast,” the FISU noted.

As reported by Ukrinform, Belarus is increasing its trade turnover with the Russian Federation amid a decline in exports outside the CIS.