Only about 11.7M economically active people in Ukraine - study
These data were released by experts of the Ukrainian Institute of the Future (UIF) during the presentation of the Economic Forecast of Ukraine for 2023-2024.
"According to our estimates, there are about 28.5 million people living in Ukraine today. But it is not the total number that is important but the structure. Out of all these 28.5 million, 16.8 million are economically inactive (pensioners and children). About 11.7 million are economically active but only about 9-9.3 million of them are working. If we subtract public sector employees from this figure, we are left with 6-7 million people who, in fact, are the 'engine' of the entire economy," Yana Lavryk, an expert of UIF economic programs, said.
She emphasized that the situation may continue to deteriorate. If the population continues to emigrate, there will be no one to create GDP in Ukraine, no one to pay taxes, and thus the country will not be able to service the budget and fulfill its social obligations.
"The shortage of labor resources will lead to higher taxes, because it is natural: if there are two unemployed people for every one working person, the tax burden will have to increase to provide for them. Thus, we will have fiscalization of the economy," the researcher noted.
She believes that Ukraine's migration policy, namely the issue of returning Ukrainians from abroad and attracting new migrants, should be the government's number one priority.
"It is literally a matter of the nation's survival," Lavryk emphasized.
As reported, the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine believes that the end of Russia's war, economic development and the rebuilding of infrastructure and housing, as well as employment opportunities, are the main factors that will facilitate the return of Ukrainians home. The return of Ukrainians is important for ensuring a rapid and sustainable economic recovery of Ukraine, as the need for labor resources will increase significantly after the victory.
