According to the economic activity review released by the ministry, a fall in Ukraine’s GDP is estimated at 5.5% in January-September 2020 (3.6% in the third quarter of 2020 compared to the third quarter of 2019, which is higher than previously expected – a decline at 6.5%).
At the same time, the ministry left unchanged Ukraine’s GDP forecast for the end of the year - at the level of 4.8%, on condition that the situation with the incidence rate both in Ukraine and the world doesn’t deteriorate significantly by the end of the year and quarantine measures are not strengthened (a long-term strict quarantine is not introduced).
However, in case of a long-term lockdown in Ukraine and the world, a decline in Ukraine’s GDP in the fourth quarter may reach 6.0% (year-over-year), under such conditions, a fall in Ukraine’s GDP at the end of the year is expected at 5.6% (year-over-year).
As reported by Ukrinform, the Ukrainian government forecasts a 4.8% fall in the economy at the end of 2020 and a 4.6% growth in 2021.
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