Three-year forecast of Ukraine’s economic and social development released

According to Economic Development Minister Ihor Petrashko, gradual acceleration of economic growth and formation of a high-quality basis for sustainable economic development in the medium term, taking into account conduct of major reforms and financial stability maintenance, are expected from 2021.

As the Ministry’s press service informs that the baseline scenario envisages the recovery of the positive trend of economic development after significant losses caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, and forecasts:

GDP growth at 4.6% in 2021, 4.3% in 2022, 4.7% in 2023;

consumer price index is expected at 107.3% in 2021, 106.2% in 2022, 105.3% in 2023;

increase in the real average monthly salary of employees at the level of 12.1% in 2021, 6.0% in 2022, 5.1% - in 2023;

unemployment rate at the level of 9.2% in 2021, 8.5% in 2022, 8.0% in 2023;

growth in exports of goods and services at 2.9% in 2021 with a further increase up to 6.4% in 2022, and up to 8.2% in 2023.

According to the minister, the tasks set by the President of Ukraine to increase the minimum wage were taken into account when finalizing the forecast for 2021-2023. Thus, the weighted average level of the weighted average minimum wage is projected at UAH 6,250 in 2021, UAH 6,700 in 2022, UAH 7,176 in 2023.

The document will become a basis for strategic decisions made by the authorities. In addition, the three-year forecast will help form medium-term benchmarks for businesses and investors.

"The forecasted macro indicators will be the basis for the preparation of the draft state budget of Ukraine for 2021," Petrashko added.

ol