Business expects further economic growth - NBU survey

Business expects further economic growth - NBU survey

Ukrainian companies expect further economic growth and moderate inflation, according to a survey of company executives conducted by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) in the fourth quarter of 2019, the central bank's press service has reported.

"Ukrainian companies expect further economic growth and moderate inflation. The level of business activity of enterprises, despite a slight decrease from the previous quarter, remains quite high: the Business Expectations Index (BEI) for the next 12 months is 112.0% (115.3% in the previous quarter). Respondents of all types of economic activity, except for respondents of agriculture, expect a revival of business activity. The most optimistic forecasts are made for mining industry enterprises and other types of activity (telecommunication, computer programming, information and other services.) Business forecasts consumer price growth at 7% in 12 months (6.9% in Q3), which is quite close to the National Bank's medium-term inflation target (5+/-1% pp)," the report reads.

In addition, over the next 12 months, the business expects an exchange rate of UAH 27.43 per U.S. dollar. In the previous quarter, the figure was UAH 27.96 per U.S. dollar. Almost half of the companies - 44.1% - believe that the rate exchange will not exceed UAH 27.00 per U.S. dollar. Business expectations of the growth of production of goods and services in Ukraine in the next 12 months remain quite high - more than a third of companies (37.6%) expect their growth, yet almost half (46.8%) believe that these indicators will remain at the same level.

Over the next 12 months, 28% of companies expect the improvement of the financial and economic situation, with only 9.4% expecting it to worsen. The improvement of the financial and economic situation is expected by respondents of all types of economic activity, except respondents of energy and water supply. Trade enterprises have the highest expectations.

The NBU said that the survey was conducted from December 4, 2019 to January 3, 2020. A total of 697 enterprises from 22 regions of the country (excluding the temporarily occupied territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, as well as the Donetsk and Luhansk regions) participated in the survey.


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