Military analyst says Ukraine may be gaining tactical initiative on battlefield

According to Ukrinform, this was stated on Ukrainian Radio by military analyst Oleksii Hetman.

“There were days when more than 300 combat engagements were recorded per day. But many people assume that General Staff reports reflect only Russian assault actions. That is not what is actually happening on the front line,” he said.

He noted that, according to statements by Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, about half of the engagements now represent Ukrainian counterattacks.

“If there were 300 engagements a few days ago, about 150 were Russian assaults and 150 were Ukrainian counterattacks. This ratio has grown to 50–50. Compared to March, when it was 30–70 in favor of Russian attacks, the situation has now equalized,” Hetman said.

According to him, if this trend continues, Ukrainian counterattacks may soon exceed Russian assault activity.

He added that Ukraine is actively targeting Russian logistics and preventing the delivery of supplies to the front line. He also pointed to the reported destruction of up to 40% of Russia’s primary oil refining capacity.

“All these actions are leading to the stabilization of the front line. If the number of strikes on both sides is roughly equal and there is no significant advance, it means the front line is militarily stabilized,” he said.

Hetman also answered affirmatively when asked whether Ukraine has seized the initiative in the war.

“Yes. The number of combat engagements has equalized. Previously it was lower, almost negligible. Now it has increased and has effectively matched Russia’s level. This is tactical initiative,” he said.

He added that on some sections of the front, Ukrainian forces even hold an advantage in manpower and equipment.

“There are all signs that the initiative, at least at the tactical level, is already on our side. Not yet strategic, but it is in our hands. If the trend continues, Russia may be forced to retreat. This could resemble the Kherson or Kharkiv operations,” the analyst noted.

As previously reported, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi informed the EU Military Committee about the situation at the front and emphasized the key task of stopping Russian advances and conducting effective counterattacks.