Russia may withdraw from arms control treaties in preparation for war with NATO – ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said this in a new report, according to Ukrinform.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov claimed that Russia's "unilateral moratorium" on the deployment of land-based missiles prohibited under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty is nearing its "logical conclusion," suggesting that Russia may openly deploy such missiles in the future.

Ryabkov also claimed that the United States and its Western allies did not appreciate or reciprocate Russia's "restraint" following the United States' withdrawal from the INF Treaty in 2019. Ryabkov's claim that Russia has continued to abide by the INF Treaty since the US withdrawal are false. The United States suspended its participation in the INF Treaty on February 1, 2019 and withdrew from the treaty in August 2019 due to Russia's development, testing, and deployment of intermediate-range 9M729 (SSC-8) missiles in violation of the treaty.

The report highlights that Russia suspended its participation in the INF Treaty in response to the U.S. suspension on February 2, 2019. ISW analysts suggest that Ryabkov's allegations of Russia's continued adherence to the treaty are likely part of the Kremlin's ongoing efforts to falsely portray itself as a genuine participant in de-escalation efforts and to portray the West and NATO as threats to Russia's security.

"The Kremlin may leverage the war in Ukraine to renounce its participation in other international arms control treaties as it prepares for a larger confrontation with the West," the ISW said.