ISW analyzes why Russia and Belarus scale down Zapad-2025 military drills

This is according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), as reported by Ukrinform.

ISW analysts believe that Belarus could not have made this decision independently of Russia.

“Russia and Belarus are attempting to posture themselves as unthreatening, reasonable, and cooperative to the West,” the report states.

Belarusian officials had previously claimed that at least 13,000 personnel would take part in the Zapad-2025 exrcise. ISW suggests that both Russia and Belarus were forced to reduce the scope of the exercises because the majority of its forces are engaged in the war against Ukraine.

During the Zapad-2021 exercises, units from the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army, the 20th Combined Arms Army, and the 6th Combined Arms Army participated, along with about 4,000 Russian Airborne Forces personnel, including the 7th, 76th, 98th, and 106th Divisions. A significant portion of these formations are currently deployed in the war against Ukraine, ISW added.

The analysts recalled that in 2023, Russian officials unexpectedly canceled joint exercises with Belarus due to Russia's urgent need for equipment and manpower for its war in Ukraine.

As reported by Ukrinform, Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin recently announced the decision to "reduce the scale" of the Zapad-2025 drills and relocate the main maneuvers deeper into the country, away from the western border.

Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi noted that prior to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Russia had deployed its troops in Belarus, and warned that the planned joint drills in autumn could serve as cover for the creation of a new strike group.

Photo: Defense Intelligence of Ukraine (HUR)