Intensification of Russia's attacks in Donetsk region may indicate beginning of its summer offensive - ISW

This is reported by ISW, Ukrinform reports.

According to analysts, Russian troops increased the intensity of attacks in the Toretsk-Horlivka area on the night of 18 June and maintained a relatively high intensity of attacks in this area from 19 to 22 June. So far this year, Russians have not been active in this area of the frontline.

However, in recent days, the pace of Russian offensive operations in the north of Kharkiv region has sharply decreased, analysts say.

According to the ISW, the purpose of the Russian offensive in Kharkiv region was to constrain Ukrainian troops and equipment on the northern border to allow Russian forces to resume offensive operations in other parts of the front, particularly in Donetsk region.

It is noted that Ukrainian sources have confirmed the redeployment of some units to the Kharkiv direction from Donetsk region, so Russian troops are likely to use this to intensify attacks, in particular in the Toretsk-Horlivka area.

In addition, according to analysts, Russian forces are maintaining a high intensity of attacks in the Chasiv Yar and around Avdiivka and may soon intensify attacks in the area if the Russian commanders determine the coming weeks to be a favourable time to launch an offensive before the Defence Forces redeploy reserves back to the Donetsk region.

"Ukrainian sources have warned that Russia will launch a summer offensive, likely to be centred in eastern Ukraine, after conducting offensive operations in the north to stretch Ukraine's limited resources, and the recent increase in attacks in the Donetsk region may indicate preparations for such a summer offensive, assuming it has not already been launched," ISW said.

As reported, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in March that a new Russian offensive was expected in late May or June.

Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko, head of the National Security and Defence Council's Disinformation Countermeasures Centre, said that Russia would try to attack during the summer.

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