China may rethink stance on Russia’s war after Xi’s U.S. visit – analyst

Significant shifts in China’s foreign policy could take place following a full-fledged visit by Chinese leader Xi Jinping to the United States, as well as in the event of progress in resolving the conflict surrounding Iran.

Political analyst Ihor Reiterovych expressed this opinion in an interview with Ukrinform while commenting on possible changes in Beijing’s global approach to Russia’s war against Ukraine.

According to him, if negotiations between Washington and Beijing take place, particularly in the summer or in the context of important political dates in the U.S., this could open up “new interesting prospects” for Ukraine as well.

The expert pointed out that ahead of potential contacts between the leaders of the United States and China, one Chinese official stated support for a diplomatic end to the war in Ukraine and emphasized the similarity between the positions of China and Europe regarding the need to stop hostilities and move toward negotiations.

“I would not be surprised if we see a new wave of visits by European leaders to Beijing in the near future. Xi Jinping perfectly understands that China can try to build a separate game with Europe – as a counterbalance to the United States,” Reiterovych said.

In his view, if China and the European Union move closer in their positions on ending Russia’s war against Ukraine, a window of opportunity could emerge for joint pressure on Moscow.

At the same time, the expert warned that before Xi Jinping’s visit to the United States, Russia may view the current diplomatic dynamics as temporarily favorable for itself. However, he believes this effect will be short-lived.

“This is an advantage with a very short horizon – two to three months. If normalization between the U.S. and China begins, if the sides reach agreements on Iran, trade, and global issues, I can imagine a scenario in which Donald Trump and Xi jointly declare the need to end the war in Europe,” he said.

Reiterovych believes that in such a case, both sides could gain political dividends: for Trump, it would be an opportunity to reinforce the image of a peacemaker, while for Xi Jinping, it would help position China as a global player without whom major international conflicts cannot be resolved.

As previously reported, Kurt Volker, a researcher at the Center for European Policy Analysis and former U.S. special representative for Ukraine negotiations, said he does not see China acting as a mediator in a settlement between Ukraine and Russia and does not believe Beijing is seeking such a role because “it is not their war.”