Nuclear exercises in Belarus part of Russia’s strategy ahead of major summer offensive, diplomat says
Demonstrative military and nuclear exercises in Belarus are part of Russia’s strategy to create an additional threat to Ukraine in order to force it to redeploy forces to the northern direction ahead of a planned Russian summer offensive on the main front.
This opinion was expressed in a comment to Ukrinform by Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary, Adviser to the Director of the National Institute for Strategic Studies, Andrii Veselovskyi.
According to Veselovskyi, Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing a so-called major summer offensive. As part of this preparation, offensive operations are being conducted along the entire front line to identify potentially weakest points in Ukraine’s defenses, in order to redirect additional reserves there to break through the front.
“An objective has been set to break through the front in the summer in order to significantly change the situation on the battlefield by autumn, hold elections in the Russian Federation, and pressure the Ukrainian government to give up Donbas. After that, Putin could take some pause in the war. To achieve this, it is necessary to divert Ukraine’s attention and forces as much as possible from the front line. Therefore, a so-called Belarusian front is being opened,” the diplomat said.
In this context, he noted that, first, Russian forces are using Belarusian territory for the flight of their strike drones into Ukraine, where, as previously reported, there may be relay towers that facilitate control of these systems.
Second, Belarus is conducting spring military training sessions for reserve officers, which had taken place regularly before, but this year have received “more propaganda attention.”
“Third, nuclear military exercises have been announced. All this fits into a larger picture in which Ukrainians are expected to immediately focus on their northern front, thereby pulling forces away from the main battlefield. This is a strategy designed to make us fall for it,” he said.
Commenting on the likelihood of an attack on Ukraine from Belarusian territory, Veselovskyi noted that he is not a military specialist. At the same time, he pointed out that Belarus’ economic survival depends on two or three major industries, including automotive and tractor manufacturing, as well as the Mozyr oil refinery near the Ukrainian border.
“If an attack on Ukraine is launched from Belarusian territory, it would be enough to destroy this refinery with several dozen drones. The same applies to the other two industrial points I mentioned – production could be easily disrupted. Part of Belarus’ political leadership, including Lukashenko, understands this and does not want such a scenario,” the diplomat said.
However, he added that there are not only many Russian agents in the country but also local influence agents, making the situation complex.
“On our side, we have already warned Belarus several times at the presidential level that they should not play with fire, because we will respond decisively… Of course, our General Staff and the Defense Intelligence are closely monitoring this. But the key task now is to stop Russia’s general offensive along the front line. If we prevent critical breakthroughs, everything will be fine,” he said.
When asked whether Ukraine can rely on partners to counter the threat from Belarusian territory, Veselovskyi noted that “the only way partners can help right now is to critically strengthen our air defense.”
“If we have enough equipment and strike capabilities to protect our own industries and defensive lines, our front will hold. Our European partners understand this, which does not stop us from repeating it again and again. People tend to forget – they start thinking about Xi Jinping or Trump, while right under their nose there is a huge threat – the Russians are launching a decisive offensive. This must be understood,” he concluded.
As reported by Ukrinform, on Monday, May 18, Belarus began exercises involving military units in the combat use of nuclear weapons and nuclear support operations.
The Belarusian Defense Ministry stated that the maneuvers are being conducted “to improve the readiness of the armed forces to use modern means of destruction, including special munitions.”
Missile troops and aviation have been involved in the exercises. It is claimed that during the maneuvers, “in cooperation with the Russian side,” they plan to practice the delivery of nuclear warheads and their preparation for use.
Photo: Andrii Veselovskyi’s personal archive