Dutch analyst says war may be reaching turning point in Ukraine's favor
Dutch analyst Patrick Bolder believes Russia's war against Ukraine is entering a phase in which the strategic advantage is gradually shifting toward Ukraine. According to him, the situation on the battlefield is increasingly developing to Russia's disadvantage.
Bolder, a strategic analyst and defense expert at the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS) and a former Lieutenant-Colonel from the Royal Netherlands Air Force, shared this view in comments to Ukrinform.
"Now, I think, we've come to a point where the tides are really turning against Russia and in favor of Ukraine," he said.
Bolder noted that Ukraine is gradually seizing the strategic initiative in the war. Among the reasons, he cited the lack of significant Russian advances on the front line, heavy Russian military losses, and intensified Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian territory.
"Ukraine really knows what's going on. And they are exploiting this momentum they currently have, and also with long-range attacks against Russia. Russia doesn't gain any terrain anymore in Ukraine and still lost, until now, a lot of people this year. So things are looking bad for Russia. Internally, Russia is also putting in hiding people withdrawing their bank accounts because they can't pay through internet anymore as a result of the internet shutdown. If this leads to a banking run, when people don't trust the government anymore and they're afraid that the government will take their savings in order to put it in the war economy, this will accelerate. And once it starts, it can't be stopped anymore because everybody is in panic, if everybody goes to the bank and orders their savings in and cash, all the banks will collapse in Russia. So I think if Zelensky plays it smart and government, it will be very hard for Russia to extend this war very much longer than to the end of this year," he said, adding that the turning point in the war has already begun or is very close and that this is good news for both Ukraine and Europe.
The expert also described Ukraine's proposal for a ceasefire ahead of May 9 as "a master stroke" by President Volodymyr Zelensky. In his opinion, it put Russia in a position where it either had to agree to a truce or risk disruption of the May 9 parade. He noted that Moscow effectively rejected Ukraine's proposal.
"And as it looks now, Russia didn't go into Zelensky's proposal, which was absolutely, really worthwhile and also logical in the sense that why would we give Moscow a pause in the bombing in order for them to celebrate, to have a party? Whilst the day before and probably the day behind, it will be full of Ukrainian victims. So it was really a master stroke to not postpone, but pull forward the period for a ceasefire and say if you don't comply, we don't feel bound by the fact that you want a ceasefire. Probably the ceasefire proposal has been landed by Lavrov to Minister Rubio. In order for Rubio to say to Trump and to Zelensky that Russia would be rewarded with a ceasefire. I think in Ukraine, nobody is ever worried anymore about phone talks between Putin and Trump and what that would mean for Ukraine and for Zelensky. I think they don't care anymore. […] Trump is not really helping Zelensky. He's not helping the Ukrainian people. He has no leverage anymore," the analyst said.
Bolder also pointed to changes in approaches to military support for Ukraine. According to him, European defense companies are increasingly replacing American arms manufacturers.
President Volodymyr Zelensky recently said that air defense rings around Moscow are being strengthened by relocating systems from Russian regions, creating additional opportunities for Ukrainian long-range strikes.
Photo provided by Patrick Bolder