Expert warns Orbán may resort to provocations to hold power in Hungary election

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán may resort to provocations, a state of emergency, or electoral fraud to avoid defeat in the election.

This opinion was expressed in a comment to Ukrinform by political analyst Oleh Lisnyi.

According to him, Moscow stands behind Orbán, having invested resources in him for years and is now unwilling to let him go, even if Orbán himself were to want to step down. “Russia needs to present a success story. And Orbán is a success story for them. That’s why they will keep pushing him,” he said.

If the ruling party faces the risk of defeat, harsh scenarios are possible in Hungary, the expert noted. “Orbán is similar to Yanukovych – he will not give up power, he is ready for provocations and even ‘blood,’ and is capable of holding onto power by any means,” Lisnyi said.

Orbán’s main opponent, Péter Magyar, according to the expert, represents a different type of politician who could shift the country’s foreign policy direction. “He will be farther from Moscow, closer to Europe, and more Eurocentric,” Lisnyi said.

According to him, Magyar’s political force is significantly ahead of the ruling party because society has accumulated a demand for change. “There is great fatigue with a politician who, using European funds, does not make Hungary European. For some Hungarians, this is a moment of truth – a return to Europe. Because although Hungary is nominally in the EU, in reality it lives in the ‘Russian world,’” the political analyst believes.

At the same time, he emphasized that Russia’s influence would not disappear even in the event of a new leader’s victory. “We must understand that there is a strong administrative resource, Russian intelligence services, and people placed over a long period in key positions who will continue to influence the country’s governance,” Lisnyi explained.

He also believes that there will be no rapid improvement in diplomatic relations between Ukraine and Hungary after the elections. “Orbán has committed a major wrongdoing against Ukrainians – he has significantly demonized us,” the expert stated. According to him, this negativity and hostility toward Ukrainians has already become entrenched at the societal level and may remain a social demand that new politicians will have to address.

The expert noted that even in the event of Orbán’s defeat, he would remain an important political factor, as a significant number of officials appointed during his tenure would remain in office after the election. “He cannot simply be erased or wiped away like a picture. He is a shrewd politician who may accept defeat and then try to return, for example, as president,” Lisnyi concluded.

As reported by Ukrinform, Hungarian embassies and consular offices have recorded a record number of people wishing to vote abroad in the parliamentary election scheduled for April 12.