Europe may face new threats from Russia even before its rearmament completes – expert

Risks to Europe from Russia in the hybrid domain could increase significantly in the coming years, even before Moscow finishes rebuilding its military capabilities.

Arndt Freytag von Loringhoven, former vice president of Germany's Federal Intelligence Service (Bundesnachrichtendienst) stated this in an interview with Ukrinform.

 "Russia has been actively rearming and developing its military capabilities for many years. At the same time, it has failed to win the war against Ukraine. This creates a certain ambiguity in conclusions. If we talk about specific dates, such as 2029, there is a risk of creating the illusion that Europe is safe until then and will only face a military threat afterward," he said, commenting on the likelihood of a Russian attack on NATO territory before 2029.

According to the former intelligence official, such estimates are overly simplistic because they focus only on conventional military capabilities and ignore the hybrid dimension.

"I would be cautious with this approach, as it is based solely on military capabilities and completely ignores the hybrid dimension. It is precisely in this sphere that risks may increase significantly in the coming years, well before Russia completes its military rearmament," von Loringhoven said.

He also pointed to geopolitical factors, particularly the role of the United States: "The current geopolitical situation may also be dangerous for Europe, especially while Donald Trump is in the White House and, on many issues, takes a position significantly more favorable to Russia than to Ukraine."

According to the German expert, this could create a perception in the Kremlin that the U.S. might not support Europe at a critical moment.

In addition, Europe's security situation is highly dependent on other conflicts, currently including tensions related to Iran.

The expert also warned about the risk of internal political divisions within the European Union.

"Overall, there is a risk of an unstable situation developing in Europe – not least due to possible political divisions within the European Union. If, for example, there is a rightward shift in France or Poland, this could harm ambitions for a common European defense," von Loringhoven noted.

In this context, he stressed that the notion that Russia will rearm and be able to launch a conventional military attack in 2029 is overly simplistic: "Reality is far more complex and likely more dangerous."

As previously reported, Chief of the General Staff of the Czech Armed Forces Karel Rehka stated that many NATO military leaders do not rule out the possibility that Russia could attempt to attack Alliance territory before 2029.