U.S. intel doubts large-scale war would oust Iran’s regime – WP
A classified report by the National Intelligence Council states that even a large-scale attack on Iran by the United States would be unlikely to oust deeply entrenched military and clerical establishment of the Islamic Republic.
This was reported by The Washington Post, according to Ukrinform.
The conclusions, confirmed to the newspaper by three people familiar with the report’s contents, raise doubts about President Donald Trump’s declared plan to “clean out” Iran’s leadership structure and install a leader of his choosing.
The report, completed about a week before the United States and Israel launched a war on February 28, outlined possible sequences of events following either a narrowly targeted campaign against Iranian leaders or a broader strike on the country’s leadership and government institutions, according to people familiar with the findings. In both cases, the intelligence assessment concluded that Iran’s clerical and military leadership would respond to the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei by following established protocols designed to preserve continuity of power.
The possibility that Iran’s fragmented opposition could take power was described as “unlikely,” the sources said.
However, the report did not examine other possible scenarios for developments in Iran, including the deployment of U.S. ground forces in the country or arming ethnic Kurds to incite an uprising.
The power-transfer process envisioned in the report is currently unfolding under pressure from a large-scale bombing campaign by the United States and Israel. The replacement of the supreme leader is carried out by Iran’s powerful clerical body, the Assembly of Experts. However, members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and other security officials also play an influential role.
Current and former U.S. officials say that, at least for now, they see no signs of a mass popular uprising in Iran or major divisions within the government or security forces that could lead to the establishment of a new regime. During demonstrations in January triggered by the country’s severe economic conditions, Iranian security forces killed thousands of protesters.
Experts believe that since power in Iran remains firmly in the hands of the clergy and the military, Trump’s ability to influence political developments is limited.
“There’s no other force within Iran that can confront the remaining power that the regime has,” said Suzanne Maloney, of the Brookings Institution. “Even if they’re not able to project that power very effectively against their neighbors, they can certainly dominate inside the country.”
As previously reported by Ukrinform, President Donald Trump has privately expressed interest in sending American troops into Iran.
Photo: United States Central Command