Former ambassador warns U.S. security guarantees lack real deterrent power

Former Ambassador of Ukraine to the United States (2006–2010) and France (2014–2020) Oleh Shamshur believes that the absence of information about the final format of U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine is not accidental, as the proposed arrangements lack real force and are incapable of deterring Russia.

The diplomat expressed this view on NV Radio, Ukrinform reports.

“I am absolutely not convinced by the issues that are now supposedly 100% agreed upon. They do not convince the overwhelming majority of Ukrainians, because all these guarantees are merely on paper. This is a paper tiger that will not frighten Putin. And it is no coincidence at all that we do not hear in what final form these guarantees are planned to be signed. I believe that we hear nothing precisely because these are the guarantees we already know about — and they are not real guarantees,” Shamshur said.

According to him, this position should be voiced by the Ukrainian delegation at the negotiations “so that at least our partners clearly understand that we are aware of the real value of these guarantees.”

Commenting on the purpose of the next round of talks in a trilateral format scheduled for February 1, the diplomat suggested that “each side is obviously pursuing its own objectives.”

“Witkoff – and therefore Trump – needs to show that something is happening, that there are some real steps toward implementing Trump’s (peace) plan. The Russian side, apparently, does not want to anger Trump, so they are making certain ‘gestures.’ And what is this needed for us? Probably also to show that efforts are being made, including not to offend Trump,” the former ambassador noted.

According to him, this “creates the appearance of negotiations,” as discussions revolve around “issues that are far from being priorities compared to urgent problems.”

“So, expecting that something meaningful will come out of this, in my view, is hardly realistic. And once again, we must acknowledge that everything is decided on the battlefield – this is the main issue… If there were truly increased pressure on Russia and its military machine, then one could expect at least some minimal shifts in Russia’s position,” Shamshur believes.

As reported by Ukrinform, President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that the document on security guarantees from the United States is 100% ready to be signed.