Russia’s breakup real scenario – Europe must be prepared, Austrian Pan-European Movement President says

The collapse of the Russian Federation is a realistic scenario, given the colonial nature of the Russian state, and Europe needs to be prepared for it.

This view was expressed in an interview with Ukrinform by Rainhard Kloucek, President of the Pan-European Movement in Austria, commenting on negotiations initiated by the United States.

"The Russian Federation is de facto a colonial empire. In the case of Putin, I have a clear impression that he dreams of restoring this colonial empire in its old form. The key question is different: how long will the peoples living in this colonial empire allow Moscow to use them? And when will they say: enough, now we organize ourselves? I consider this possible – and even not unlikely," he said.

According to Kloucek, Russian history shows that defeats in wars have repeatedly triggered systemic changes. "Every time Russia lost a war, profound changes followed: after Afghanistan, after World War I. Every colonial empire sooner or later collapsed," he noted.

In this context, Kloucek believes Europe must prepare in advance for a possible Russian collapse. He warned against repeating the mistakes of the late 20th century. "We must not repeat the mistake many made in 1989, 1990, and 1991, particularly regarding Yugoslavia, when out of fear of a bloody breakup they long supported Milosevic. The bloody breakup happened anyway," emphasized the President of the Pan-European Movement in Austria.

He stressed that Russia’s scale is much larger, and therefore the risks are higher. "Russia is much bigger in scale. We cannot be interested in a bloody outcome. But we must be prepared if it happens," Kloucek said.

Answering a question about whether Europe should actively promote the decolonization of Russia, he stated: "I would have nothing against it, primarily in the informational space. There are historical precedents."

In his view, Europe needs to formulate clearer signals regarding the future of regions within Russia. "Why not send appropriate signals today or open up prospects? And partly this is already happening," he added.

Previously, Ukrinform reported that Mykhailo Gonchar, President of the Center for Global Studies Strategy XXI, expressed the opinion that the collapse of Russia is a matter of time, as the federal center has demonstrated its inability in a basic issue – security. Therefore, the West, particularly Europe, is now studying potential scenarios for Russia’s disintegration.