Volodymyr Ohryzko, Director of the Center for Russian Studies in Ukraine, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine (2007-2009)

The world has been engulfed in a global political storm, with Ukraine at its focus. It all started with caution and conservative expectations: President Zelensky made trips to the capitals of European countries: Athens, Paris, Madrid, and Ankara. In addition, the President announced ahead of his visit to Ankara his intention to discuss with Turkish President Erdogan approaches to a ceasefire, establishing peace, Turkey’s role and its mediation efforts regarding the humanitarian aspects of the war. But on the last day of his European tour, when Zelensky was in Ankara, rumors first emerged, and then a text of what is now referred to as the “28-point peace plan” leaked into the media.” Ukrinform met with Volodymyr Ohryzko, a prominent Ukrainian diplomat, politician, and military analyst who served as the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine from 2007 to 2009 and is currently the Director of the Centre for Russian Studies in Ukraine, to discuss the plan’s contents and the developments that occurred during these few days after this political storm erupted.

- A first impression that arises from reading this text is that behind it Russian ears clearly stick out and, moreover, it smells with “Russian spirit”. What were your impressions from this text?

- This is an apparent diplomatic attack by Russia on the United States of America, not on Ukraine, because they don't see us up close. This was another attempt to put Trump in an awkward situation. Now it is already known that the plan was purportedly authored by Dmitriev, Witkoff and, rumor has it, Trump's son-in-law. What can we expect from such a plan? The two Americans, like Trump, are known for being thirsty for earning more billions. The Kremlin is aware of this perfectly well. That explains why Dmitriev continues the old song about the fantastic opportunities to earn their billions in Russia that will open up should the US and Russia come to an agreement and make peace. And that is exactly what Trump is striving for. So, Kushner just has to go to Trump and say: here is a wonderful plan that we have devised together, and Trump approves it, without delving into the content. This, in fact, is the scenario that Moscow conceived from the very beginning, and it has worked out. After all, Rubio says that he heard nothing, the intelligence services say that they heard nothing, all those who should have been involved also heard nothing.  So, it turns out that this is another special operation by Moscow targeting not Ukraine this time, but America, and it has succeeded.

- But what is really confusing is that the same demands and principles to which Russia is returning are being repeated again. Moscow claims that these provisions were purportedly agreed upon at Istanbul in 2022. But now all this is backed up by a reference to the agreements reached in Anchorage, which no one saw, and this is dangerous. This is a gradual and systematic creation by Russia of a foundation on which to build its principles and approaches, which have not changed since December 2021, when the Kremlin set out its ultimatum to the US and NATO. Now Moscow, citing the agreements allegedly reached at Anchorage, is declaring that the two presidents have already come to terms, so they must be implemented. Do you see such a danger?

- You see, Russia’s existence has always been founded on lies, which has been proven time and time again. They in Moscow are maintaining that Trump and Putin agreed on something at Anchorage. If that is so, then these high-level agreements are supposed to be transferred for implementation from the presidential level to a lower level, to the ministerial level and beyond, in order to process the leaders’ ideas and shift them into a practical domain. Lavrov’s call to Rubio took place, and what do we hear? Lavrov says that they are following up the logic of Anchorage, and Rubio says that we did not agree on this, and your position is not at all the same as what we had talked about there. It turns out that both Putin and Lavrov are lying true to form. Because if that were the case, then there would have been Budapest, then there would have been a meeting between Trump and Putin in Europe, but for some reason it did not happen. Why? Because the Americans understood that they were either taken for idiots, or this was simply an impudent position that they could not accept. Rubio saw that he was simply being fooled, in the banal sense of the word, and that it was impossible to continue with such an approach, which is why, in fact, this meeting was thwarted.

- The danger is also in that, among other things, there is no legal meaning in it. It is not even determined who is negotiating, who the negotiating parties are. And it seems that we, Ukraine, are being pressurized to agree to everything that we have been fighting against for almost four years, to agree just like that, without getting anything in return.

- It turns out that Russia understands: if they follow the traditional, normal diplomatic path, when expert teams, the people who understand what is at stake are working, they will not get the result they wanted. And here Moscow has the opportunity to bypass official communication channels and do it through the Dmitriev-Witkoff-Kushner connection. This, from Moscow's perspective, is a successful special operation. But, fortunately for us, it still comes back to official factors. And the US delegation to Geneva is not headed by Witkoff, who sits quietly on the sidelines, thinking about how he has once again set up the American side. And the Europeans are implying in sophisticated, delicate and beautiful words to the Americans that, guys, what you are talking about is just nonsense, it cannot be like this.

- Why do you think this project has emerged now, what is the motivation behind it? After all, it is unlikely that the real motive is to complete the work and conclude a peace agreement by Thanksgiving in America.

- There are two key reasons here. The first is that contrary to fantasies of the war criminal Putin, who tells everyone that everything is fine with them, that they have already surrounded everyone near Pokrovsk, invites journalists there, that they have already captured Kupyansk, captured everything that could be captured, the situation in Russia is really gloomy. And these are not my insinuations, but the conclusions of Russian official factors, which show in figures and facts that the next year will probably be the last when the Russian economy will still retain some signs of life. Because even their defense industry is starting to show a slowdown and decline, implying that the rest of the economy is crashing like a truck careering downhill on ice with no brakes. So for Putin, however triumphant statements he can make, it’s a chance to prevent the Russian economy from sliding into a total collapse.

Here also there is an American factor – the “Epstein tapes” that may reveal very disgusting facts about Trump. If this happens, it will be like a political atomic bomb exploding, and we cannot even predict the consequences. Therefore, Trump desperately needs another small diplomatic victory and success, something like the supposed success in Gaza, where Hamas said it is grateful for the efforts, but the war will continue. But Trump no longer cares about it. Today we are talking about a conflict that can potentially evolve into World War III, and if Trump stops it, the danger from the tapes seems to be leveled off, loses its destructive power.

Therefore, I think, the combination of these factors forces us to move as fast as possible. In addition, let's not forget that the people in America are supportive of Ukraine.

- There is another reason, I think, which is November 21, the day when US sanctions against Russian oil companies become effective. And also bipartisan bill in the U.S. Congress to impose secondary sanctions on entities doing business with Russia, which has advanced following President Donald Trump's backing. It empowers the U.S. president to impose secondary sanctions on countries and foreign firms that continue to purchase Russian energy (oil, natural gas, or uranium) or support Russia's energy production. President Trump publicly signaled his willingness to sign the bill, provided it preserved his authority to make final decisions on the measures. Following Trump's blessing, the bill gained momentum and is moving through Congress. Is that what influenced the Kremlin to become so active?

- From the Russian point of view, yes, indeed. I even said earlier that on the eve of the sanctions coming into effect, there will definitely be some kind of phone call from Putin to Trump, during which he will say that he is ready for anything. Well, you see, he has gone a different path, a more cunning one.

As for the Americans... You know, many of them say that they need to go further. In particular, American senators, among them Lindsey Graham, introduced a bipartisan bill that would require the President to officially designate Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism.  Such a designation would trigger a robust set of sanctions under several U.S. laws, including a ban on U.S. foreign aid and economic assistance, prohibitions on arms-related exports and sales, financial and other restrictions, including U.S. opposition to loans from international financial institutions like the World Bank and limits on diplomatic immunity. The status serves as grounds for the U.S. to potentially impose secondary sanctions on any other country or entity that continues to engage in certain trade or financial dealings with the designated state. If this legislation is passed, it will actually make the country a pariah in the literal sense of the word. This will be the finale of the comedy.

- Another point that caught my attention was that immediately after the text appeared, Moscow started playing around with it: “Oh, we didn’t know, they haven’t given it to us yet, we don’t know how Zelensky will respond, so let’s wait and see.” True enough, Putin later admitted that they did receive the draft document and are now studying it. Are they pretending they didn’t see it previously?

- They are lying, as always and everywhere. Experts, having looked at the English text, saw at least three instances of Russianisms there, implying this is a banal translation from Russian. I suppose Putin knew about this text a little earlier than Donald Trump and everyone else. This is another lie. Putin was caught lying all the time again.

- Now let’s talk about something else. The response from and position of European countries made it possible to quickly change the situation. But this also raises the question as to why was it so late? After all, work on the European plan has been going on for a long time, and Zelensky also spoke about it. Why are we and our European partners reacting again instead of acting proactively?

- This is also a question for me. I don't know why the Europeans continue to assign themselves the role of a secondary partner. This is perhaps because they are not yet ready to protect their own security. Perhaps because they understand that without the United States of America, as of today, they can do nothing, the European community is not yet able to defend itself. Only now, after many years of talks, they have finally agreed on an initiative known as Military Schengen - a set of policies to ensure the rapid, coordinated, and secure movement of military forces and equipment across the EU. Whereas now, as they admit, it takes 45 days for NATO to deploy its troops, say, to the Baltics, then we should understand that Russia can be near Berlin in 45 days.

Therefore, I think, the Europeans, being fully aware of this, now, as they say, “remain once bitten, twice shy” of quarreling with the Americans, in order to still remain at least under the American protectorate, in the military sense of the word, while, of course, starting preparations to create something akin to a European NATO. And this means that the Europeans simply have no other choice but to finally take hold of their heads and say: dear European friends, we will either defend ourselves or we will be defeated. Therefore, I think, the moment has come now.

- A very important political shift has taken place for us. Now in Europe, there is an understanding that security guarantees for Ukraine are equal to security guarantees and Europe’s future security architecture.

And today, European security relies largely on the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Therefore, the first thing European leaders did while discussing these issues at the G20 summit in South Africa, and later in Luanda, was to declare their stance regarding the limits and restrictions on weapons and the size of Ukraine’s military. This is an important positive shift in the movement towards the future architecture of European security.

The Americans seems failing to understand this, trying to solve the European security issue without Europe. Why is there no understanding that the issue goes beyond “stop killing”, as Trump believes?

- I would explain this by the total incompetence of the current US administration, who do not want to see the obvious. While Biden explicitly called Putin a war criminal, and Russia's actions a war of aggression against Ukraine, Trump avoids using such contentious words. He has no understanding of the causes behind this war or its consequences, neither does he understand who is the aggressor and who is the victim of aggression. This logic does not exist for him. He has a different logic: I am above of all that is happening, and, being a great peacemaker, I just want this to come to an end. And it doesn’t matter at whose expense. That is to say, such logic justifies all those absolutely inadequate things that we are talking about. And when the United States votes in the UN with Russia, China and several other rogue countries against a resolution backed by 143 countries, it means that modern American diplomacy is crossing itself out.

- But, I suppose, even with such approaches to diplomacy, it would be too much to include in the original U.S.-Russia 28-point peace plan a provision for Russia to return and be a member of the Group of Seven (G7) again. They might as well include a provision for the United States of America to join the BRICS, making it into BRICS-US. Why is this happening?

- It would suffice just to look at the first clause of the so-called “peace plan”, which says that the sovereignty of Ukraine must be confirmed. What is sovereignty? Under international law, a sovereign state is a political entity that has supreme and independent authority over its own affairs, without being subject to the control of any foreign powers. This means that the countries confirm that Ukraine is a sovereign state, that is, a state with a defined territory within its internationally recognized borders. This is not there in this plan, the other half of the wording is omitted. Does that mean to say that Ukraine will retain sovereignty only over the territory currently under its control? Then it is no longer about full sovereignty, but only part of it. Got it? And there are 28 similar points there in this plan.

That being said, if Ukraine’s sovereignty is confirmed, then we must admit that what Russia is doing is aggression. And then they would have been supposed to write that they confirm the sovereignty of Ukraine and condemn Russia for its act of aggression that threatens this sovereignty. Then there would be some balance there.

They are talking about security guarantees, but with reservations added. What is it about? Therefore, you see, calling it a plan is a huge stretch. These are some ideas about a possible future option that will help repair the aftermath of Russian aggression, something that determines the main directions of movement. This, in fact, is where the whole value of this document lies.

- Once this document emerged, one of the goals was immediately announced, which was to step up diplomatic efforts. It was 100 percent achieved, because I have not seen so much diplomatic effort since long ago. In recent days, everyone has been discussing these points. And the statement from delegation heads from Ukraine and the United States of America in Geneva, and the announcement of a new meeting of European leaders - all this improves the project that was put on the table surprisingly for everyone. This will hopefully add some logic to the process. In particular, I did not find there any points that would oblige the Russian Federation to do anything. Do you see them?

- Since this is a Russian plan, they are not supposed to be found there. And right now, the task for Ukrainian and European diplomats is to make sure they are included there, as part of the list, meaning that there is not even a mention of what is absolutely unacceptable. And that is why I say that a simple balance must be maintained. Because if you demand something from the victim of aggression while demanding nothing from the aggressor, then this document is about surrender, not about a peaceful settlement.

But for us now, I am confident, the main thing is to survive as a state, not to quarrel with the Americans and to receive help from the Europeans.

- I agree with you in that international law will, at some point, prevail in the discussions. But the main thing for us now would be to achieve a ceasefire. And Trump said that the warring parties should stop where they are now. President Zelensky as well agreed to cease fire along the current frontline. And this is not the first time Russia has deviated from this.

- I do not know what is written in the instructions for our delegation, which is now negotiating. But I would ask such questions bluntly, insisting on absolute unacceptability of the used approaches to the aggressor and the victim of aggression. We must understand that when you retreat, you are attacked. Therefore, we need to demonstrate strength and willingness to fight under any circumstances.

In this regard, I have great hopes for the role of the US Senate and Congress. There are absolutely normal Republicans there, people who do not see the world through the glasses of Witkoff or Kushner, and, I suppose, they will also put pressure on Trump from the inside.

- Ukrainian and European proposals will sooner or later be incorporated into a new peace initiative due to the work done by the negotiating teams. And then this text must be shown to Moscow. What do you think will we hear from there?

- We will again hear a cry about the root causes not being eliminated. And this will only favor Ukraine, because after that, when Trump, let’s suppose, says that everything has been agreed upon with Ukraine, but Moscow is opposing, then the entire chorus of Democrats and Republicans in the USA will say: no, we are enough of it, it cannot continue like that any longer. We, excuse us, have got tired of you. So, get everything you are supposed to get, and we are again talking about all the resolutions, sanctions, and so on. I think that this is exactly the option that will end it all. It matters that we ensure that the Western world and Ukraine are united in opposing Russia. If such is the case, then the chances of the Russian Federation prevailing will decrease and decrease.

- So, there is no turning back from this path now that the Europeans are proving their position to Trump in every possible way. Rubio, having immersed himself in the negotiations, saw many things with different eyes. And when a balanced document again turns out to be unacceptable to Moscow, then either Congress or other actors will intervene.

We seem to be approaching the moment where we need to regain the lost difference between an agreement and an ultimatum, an agreement and surrender.

- Yes, we need to preserve sovereignty and ensure our national interests are secured.

Ihor Dolgov led this conversation 

Photo: Volodymyr Tarasov, Ukrinform  

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Watch the conversation in full on Ukrinform YouTube channel here