Temporary U.S. sanctions relief will not save Russia – Vlasiuk

The suspension of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and petroleum product sales should not be overestimated in terms of its impact on Russia’s economy, given the country’s significant budget deficit.

Vladyslav Vlasiuk, the President’s Commissioner for Sanctions Policy, expressed this view in comments to Ukrinform.

He stressed that Ukraine would prefer the United States not to ease sanctions on Russian oil, but cautioned against overestimating Washington’s decision.

“As of now, the structural changes in Russia’s economy are serious enough that this temporary sanctions relief will not save them. If the situation drags on and becomes long-term, then it could serve as a lifeline. But at present, I would not overestimate the effect. It is bad for us, but given the changes in Russia’s economy, it will not save them,” Vlasiuk noted.

He highlighted that the first two months of 2026 were difficult for Russia’s budget: the country failed to secure oil and gas revenues or other income, and nearly 80 percent of the planned annual deficit has already been used.

“It appears that a price of $58 per barrel is no longer sufficient for them—they now need $65 and above. And that price must hold until year-end. Whether it will is another question,” he said.

Vlasiuk also expressed doubt that sanctions relief would lower global oil prices. In his view, decisive factors remain the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and the duration of the war in the Middle East.

As reported, the United States is suspending sanctions for one month on Russian oil and petroleum products loaded onto vessels before March 12. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent assured that the Putin regime would not gain significant revenue from this temporary measure.

According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russia’s leading economic institutions have already recorded that the country’s economy is on the verge of stagflation.