Ukraine’s trade with Germany could reach record EUR 12B in 2025, expert says

During the war years, trade between Ukraine and Germany has grown rapidly, but after the war ends, the balance will need to be adjusted by increasing Ukrainian exports.

This view was expressed in a comment to Ukrinform by Robert Kirchner, Deputy Head of the German Economic Team.

“German-Ukrainian bilateral trade (total export and import) is growing rapidly, breaking one record after another. This year, it is expected to exceed €12 billion. And this trend has been observed for several consecutive years,” Kirchner said.

He noted that a significant part of this is related to military goods. It is difficult to say exactly what share this represents, as much of the trade and investment related to military products is classified, and not without reason. However, the general trend is clear, and experts expect it to continue even after a peace agreement or ceasefire is reached.

Ukraine is among the global leaders in investment guarantees, Kirchner noted. When companies decide to invest in Ukraine, they typically receive guarantees for their investments. Not all, but many, he said.

“I believe Ukraine even now leads the world in this regard, which is, of course, also connected to the war and the security situation. But it also shows that there is demand from companies that want to insure their business,” the economist said.

This demonstrates that there are businesspeople willing to invest in Ukraine. In recent years, the scale of projects has increased. Initially, only very small projects were insured, but now companies are also willing to take on large projects and insure them, which is a positive sign.

“More and more companies are showing interest in Ukraine. We have investment guarantees from the German government, which also cover such projects. We see that interest and demand are growing. I think many companies are ready for cooperation,” Kirchner added.

He acknowledged that in the current economic situation, many are waiting to see what happens. However, according to the expert, the trend of growing interest and willingness to invest in various projects will continue. He hopes that Ukraine will then export more to Germany and the EU.

“Because this is what we have observed during the war: exports fell, and now they have stabilized at a relatively low level, but are not growing. I think the challenge and main task in the coming months and years will be to increase Ukrainian exports again, especially to the EU and specifically to Germany. Ukraine has a good chance of achieving this, but first there must be peace,” Kirchner concluded, noting that he remains optimistic.

Earlier this week, during the German-Ukrainian Business Forum, Germany’s Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs presented the new Ukraine Connect financing mechanism – a program supporting medium-sized companies from Germany and Europe in entering the Ukrainian market and expanding their activities there. In addition, federal investment guarantees can protect projects from war-related risks.