Key challenging sectors: the current situation and expert assessments

Here Ukrinform, together with experts, provides an insight into the situation in the most challenging sectors of the front line

The war in Ukraine has long crossed the line where events on the battlefield are measured exclusively by kilometers of advance or the number of burnt-out vehicles. Today, it is a war of narratives, where the word “captured” in the enemy’s media discourse is often going before actual captures for months, or does not correlate with the reality at all. The last few weeks have been marked by real hysteria in the Russian media: Kremlin mouthpieces are racing to report the “liberation” and “encirclement” of key Ukrainian fortress cities, painting a picture of the seemingly inevitable to be shown to their domestic consumers and Western audience. Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, Vovchansk, Huliaipole – these toponyms remain the international headlines, having become hostages not only to artillery duels, but also geopolitical bargaining.

Ukrainian official sources respond to this with restrained, cold language of facts: the defense line is successfully resisting enemy attacks, the fighting is going on, no city has been completely surrendered to the enemy. The Western press, in particular the German tabloids like BILD, sometimes pick up on Russian narratives, sharing dubious or unproven news, but the reality “on the ground” is always more complicated than any headline could capture. The fog of war covers the steppes of Donbas and Zaporizhzhia, and amidst this fog it is extremely important to see clear contours: where propaganda ends and the bitter truth of trench warfare begins.

This article is an attempt to dissect the situation into bitesize pieces, relying solely on data from military experts, statements and reports from the General Staff and a meticulous analysis of the frontline situation.

CARTOGRAPHY OF LIES: WHY THE KREMLIN IS “CAPTURING” CITIES ON THE AIR

In recent days, the media discourse has resembled a Theater of the Absurd, where directors from Moscow are trying to pass off the desired as a reliable fact, sparing no expense in the scenery. Statements about the fall of Pokrovsk and Vovchansk, the “cauldron” in Myrnohrad and the beginning of Russian assault on Huliaipole are being made precisely at the time when peace negotiations are gaining momentum. This coincidence is not accidental. The adversary is attempting to convert virtual successes into real negotiating positions, thus stepping up pressure on Ukraine’s Western partners.

Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military columnist at the “Information Resistance” group explains in detail the mechanics of this information attack, highlighting its coordination and purpose.

“The media discourse has been under constant pressure from Russian officials, who day after day report that such and such Ukrainian city has been purportedly captured or surrounded, and, basically, it is possible to bring foreign journalists there and celebrate Ukraine’s surrender. It is essential for Russian propaganda machine to demonstrate to the American side that they have achieved “unquestionable successes” on the battlefield and therefore have little interest in active hostilities to stop,” the expert notes.

Such information attacks have a specific target. It is not only the Ukrainian society they are trying to demoralize, but primarily the administration in Washington.

“It is clear that these statements coming from the Russian side are all outright lies, and they (the Russians – ed.) will continue to lie. Why? First of all, this information hysteria was all staged precisely for the meeting with Witkoff (Trump’s special envoy, – ed.) and, in general, against the backdrop of discussions about “peace talks” and various “peace plans.” The Kremlin needs to create the impression that it is successfully advancing, and therefore, they say, it is necessary to negotiate with it from the position of the weaker side. This is an attempt to bolster its argumentation where there are no real arguments.

Besides the foreign policy factor, there is also an internal “consumer” of the lies – Russian society who need constant doping in the form of “victories”, even if they exist only on TV screens. Oleksandr Kovalenko aptly calls this “informational fast food”: “They need to throw up at least some “victories” every day, because there are no real ones – there is nothing to boast of. So the propagandists invent “successes” to keep the population in a state of mobilized euphoria.”

The calendar factor as well has a sacred meaning in the Russian stereotype thinking. The approaching New Year makes the Kremlin look for high-profile victories for holiday reports.

War criminals: Putin and Gerasimov

“Putin will have to report something to his population about the results achieved in 2025. So, they want to present the capture of Pokrovsk as an “epic result” – a legendary, showy victory, which Putin will solemnly announce in his New Year’s address. He cannot once again go out to the nation with “everything is going according to plan” without supporting this with at least some picture of success. He needs not a captured forest, not a nameless point on the map – he needs the names of cities. And Pokrovsk, in their opinion, can become such a “victorious signboard” that will symbolize both the fictional success and the alleged capability for further offensive and seizure of Ukrainian territories,” Kovalenko summarizes.

This idea is followed up by Pavlo Lakiychuk, the director of security programs at the Center for Global Studies “Strategy XXI”. He draws attention to how the Russian leadership constructs a parallel reality in which even geography adapts to the dictator’s wishes.

“On December 1, the Kremlin website posted a press release about Putin’s alleged “visit to the Joint Grouping of Forces command post” on the last day of autumn, November 30. The Kremlin media stated that the head of the Russian General Staff Gerasimov reported to the dictator about the occupation of Pokrovsk and Vovchansk. So, look, Gerasimov said a week ago that his troops “completed the encirclement of the enemy in the Pokrovsk and Kupyansk area” and “blocked the multi-thousand-strong Ukrainian Armed Forces grouping there”. Did he say this? He did. You didn’t believe it, calling him a liar. So that’s it for you, “they’ve been finally defeated.” A video of two orcs holding a striped rag in the center of Pokrovsk is attached. It should serve as “irrefutable proof” of Putin-Gerasimov’s boast,” the expert ironically says.

Lakiychuk highlights the systematic nature of Russian disinformation campaign, where facts have lesser significance against the backdrop of the “grand plan.”

“It doesn’t matter that Gerasimov announced the capture of Kupyansk on October 26, which was not the case actually. So let there be Vovchansk! It’s located somewhere nearby… If Putin says that “in Komsomolsk, fighting continues inside the city, the advance continues,” then that’s how it is, no matter that Komsomolsk doesn’t exist on the map. If RIA Novosti declares that the Russians are “tightening an encirclement around the Ukrainian Armed Forces grouping in Stary Oskol,” you’d better believe it too, because it will otherwise be worse for you. What matters most is that the offensive operation continues. And where, that’s none of your business – the generals know better… Sometimes it seems that Russian generals and their superiors don’t really know where they are sending tens of thousands of their soldiers to die. The Russians will swallow it – they are ignorant of the geography of even Russia, let alone Ukraine. The Kremlin's message is "We're pressing on and you don’t need to check it!", Lakiychuk notes.

However, the expert warns: "The messages coming out from the "Kremlin mouthpieces" are often picked up on by Western media - this is classic PSYOP. News published by Deutsche Welle and BILD are intended to put pressure on the Europeans and Americans. Frankly, in the West, the mass audience know no more about the course of the war than the Russians: for them, Pokrovsk and Pokrovske are the same as Komsomolsk and Krasnoarmiysk. To fan a wave of panic -- Ukraine has fallen, there are only a few days left, it is not worth your help – this is the objective pursued by the Russian special services."

The analyst particularly highlights the situation in the United States, where personal connections sometimes weigh more than intelligence reports.

Ushakov, Dmitriev, Witkoff

“The United States has the most powerful intelligence community in the world – the CIA, the DIA [Defense Intelligence Agency], the NSA [National Security Agency], the U.S. Department of State's intelligence agency INR (Bureau of Intelligence and Research] and half a dozen other services constantly collect and analyze information. But objective intelligence doesn’t matter much unless required by the country’s top leadership. And where the president “trusts” a real estate agent and “just a good friend” Witkoff on foreign policy matters, and the latter, in turn, “is addicted by information provided to him by scoundrels like Dmitriev and Ushakov – all this Intelligence Community ends up overboard, while TASS and RT become a prime source of information for decision-making,” Lakiychuk concludes.

The Ukrainian war command resolutely refutes these fakes: the situation is really challenging but controllable. Reports about the “fall” of cities are an element of psychological pressure.

"Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue defensive operations in challenging sectors of the front line, in particular Pokrovsk, Vovchansk, and Kupyansk, and the Kremlin's statements about the Russian military allegedly having captured these settlements do not correspond to reality. This is just another attempt by the Kremlin to use the "flag-raising" videotaped for propaganda purposes to influence participants in international negotiations," the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff said in a statement.

WHAT IS REALLY HAPPENING ON THE FRONT LINE

If one removes all the propaganda husk, we find ourselves face to face with the harsh reality of the front line. The situation in Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad and other areas remains challenging. There is no room for "hat-tossing" here, but there is no reason for panic either.

Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad: semi-encircled fortresses

Pokrovsk, which Russian propaganda machine has already “seized” several times, remains under the control of the Defense Forces, but the fighting is already taking place immediately in built-up quarters.

Oleksandr Kovalenko provides a detailed insight into the situation, dismissing faked reports about the enemy having taken the city under its full control, and analyzing specific locations.

“Pokrovsk, which Putin has “liberated” twice already, is not under the control of the Russian occupiers. And the video that was released the day before by the TASS propaganda agency was filmed in the area of ​​the DonNTU institute located in between Evropeyskaya Street and Universitetsky Lane. Those who regularly read my reviews will immediately recognize these names – and this is not surprising, because Evropeyska Street in the city center has been under enemy control for two weeks already. The video showed the movement of a Russian subversion & reconnaissance group (SRG) consisting of 2–3, maximum 3–4 personnel, and this under the fog cover. This doesn't look like movement in a fully controlled city, does it?", - the expert inquires rhetorically.

Kovalenko attributes the enemy's tactical gains to the actions of sabotage groups, and not to the large-scale frontal breakthrough Moscow is boasting of: "The main reason why the Russian war command started talking about the "capture" of the city was that the Russian SRG was able to infiltrate into the northern part of Pokrovsk in the area of ​​the wagon depot the day before, and gain ground in the ruins along Ukrainska Berehyna and Ivan Mazepa streets. They had been making such attempts during the full previous month, but did not succeed in establishing a foothold until now. The Russians are also advancing on the southern and southeastern outskirts of Myrnohrad. Once they had managed to enter the city along Highway 544 and gain ground along Stepova Street, they expanded their control zone towards school No. 1 and kindergarten No. 2. All this fueled the fantasies of Russian propagandists: not only did they release another cheap "flag-raising” video under the fog cover, but also exploded with victorious rhetoric. In fact, the situation is very difficult, but the defense of the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad urban area continues."

Military analyst Denys Popovych adds an important detail to the analysis – the enemy’s numerical superiority. According to him, the Russians are continuing with extreme effort without caring too much about losses, which creates a kind of Hydra effect.

“BILD has jumped the gun, Pokrovsk has not yet fallen. Fighting continues in the northern part of the city, Ukrainian forces continue to hold positions along the railway, which divides the city into southern and northern parts. Whether the positions south of the railway remain ours is currently unknown. This part of the city is in the red zone, meaning the Russians have established their presence there. The enemy is superior by a factor of six or more in terms of the infantry personnel involved there. Moreover, the Russians have the opportunity to constantly rotate their forces in the city. The heads of the Hydra are cut off, but new ones would immediately grow in their place,” Popovych describes the situation.

The expert also warns of the threat of encirclement that looms over Myrnohrad due to enemy maneuvers on the flanks.

“The Russians are using infiltration tactics to advance into the eastern part of Pokrovsk and towards the settlements of Rivne and Svitle. These forces are met by friendly forces infiltrating the city in small groups from Chervony Lyman, creating a threat of encirclement for Myrnohrad. Currently, most of Myrnohrad is controlled by Ukrainian Armed Forces. The fighting is being waged primarily on the city margins. However, all this will be in vain if the mouth near Rivne closes or Pokrovsk falls down.”

Ukraine’s war command confirms the complexity of the situation, but denies the loss of control. Dmytro Lykhoviy, a press officer for the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff, outlined the boundaries of the defensive line in a comment to Ukrinform.

“The situation in Pokrovsk is extremely challenging. But the Defense Forces continue to hold the northern part of the city along the area of the railway line. Our forces are also taking active action to eliminate enemy cells. In both the Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad areas, measures are being taken to establish logistics, and the enemy's attempts to accumulate assault infantry groups and advance around settlements are being blocked,” Lykhoviy said.

Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky is personally monitoring the situation on the ground, emphasizing the focus on preserving soldiers’ lives even under such critical conditions: “We are continuing the extremely difficult phase of the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad defensive operation... The battle is ongoing. Ukrainian forces continue to hold the northern part of Pokrovsk. In the Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad areas, we are actively blocking the enemy’s attempts to accumulate assault infantry groups and advance around these settlements... At a time when the occupiers care little about their manpower losses, Ukrainian commanders have a clear understanding of the importance of preserving the lives and health of subordinate personnel.”

Vovchansk and Kupyansk: Ruins under control

In the Kharkiv Oblast, the situation is also far from the victorious reports broadcast by Moscow. Vovchansk is in ruins, but not conquered. Oleksandr Kovalenko explains the geographical aspects of the city's defense.

"Russian occupying troops have advanced towards Synelnykovo and the western part of the city along Ignatiev Street up to Kharkivska Street. On the eastern bank of the Vovcha River, almost all private houses, or rather what has remained of them, are in the zone of Russian control. But we cannot talk about the city being captured, because most of its part on the southern side of the Vovcha River is controlled by the Defense Forces of Ukraine, as well as part of the northern bank, in particular the Aggregate Plant area," Kovalenko comments.

As for Kupyansk, the situation there looks more controllable. Attempts being made by enemy sabotage groups to establish a presence in the industrial zone are encountering tough resistance.

"As regards Kupyansk, which Gerasimov has "surrounded and liberated" twice already, the situation is completely different: there, Russian SRGs are blocked in the northern part of the city, in the industrial zone behind Stadium Square, in the area of ​​the bread factory, Oblenergo, Agroton, and Kupyansk Agricultural Machinery Plant. Consistent work is being done against the occupiers in Kupyansk - they are being squeezed out, neutralized, and mopped up. Therefore, everything is far more controllable and predictable here than in Pokrovsk or Vovchansk," Kovalenko reassures.

Huliaipole: a threat from the south

The situation in the Zaporizhzhia sector, in particular around Huliaipole, is of particular concern. This city has long remained a relatively robust outpost, but now the enemy has become more active here as well.

Oleksandr Kovalenko warns of the enemy groups beginning to infiltrate the settlement, and draws attention to the points of weakness in Ukrainian defenses in this direction.

"They mostly enter through the Huliaipole Forestry. From there, the Russians have two directions to advance towards Huliaipole at once: along Highway 619 and Highway 618. Now, Russian forces are attempting to gain ground on Naberezhna Street and advance along Donetska Street. This indicates that the infiltration process has actually started. And, unfortunately, the outlook for the city looks bleak: the eastern part of Huliaipole will most likely be lost, probably by the New Year. We may lose control over this part of the city within the next few months”.

The analyst also points to a systemic error in the preparation of defensive lines, which can potentially cost much to Ukraine.

“If everything goes as it has been over the past year, when the defense of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast and the entire southern Donbass sector virtually failed, the situation will once again unfold according to the worst-case scenario. After all, a year ago it was obvious: the Russians are not advancing head-on along our fortified lines, but maneuver between them. We have created high-quality horizontal defensive lines along Huliaipole and Orikhiv against attacks from the south to the north, but we have not built vertical lines of defense to contain advances from east to west. And this despite the fact that this direction of potential advance was obvious even after the capture of Velyka Novoselka... However, nothing has been done in a year to create defensive lines that could stop them. That is why we now have problems defending Huliaipole.”

Denys Popovych confirms the seriousness of the enemy's intentions, pointing to its use of precision-guided bombs (KABs) as a sign of preparation for an assault.

"The enemy has been stopped on the approaches to Huliaipole, in particular by the efforts of Ukrainian armed Forces’ assault units. Defensive lines are currently being built. The maps show how close the enemy has approached the city, as well as its intentions regarding a potential advance. Quite obviously, the Russians will encircle the city from the north in order to cut off Ukrainian logistics, and also incrementally infiltrate its streets. The enemy is tasked to capture Huliaipole by the end of the year. Whether it will succeed or not is another question. But this direction promises much to them. Behind Huliaipole, the path to Orikhiv opens up...", Popovych predicts.

FORECASTS AND COUNTERACTION: OUTLOOK INTO 2026

What are the realistic scenarios for the development of events? Experts are unanimous that the loss of some positions is likely, but this does not mean defeat in the war. The focus should be on gaining time and preserving the army.

Oleksandr Kovalenko gives a sober, albeit harsh forecast for Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, advocating for seeing reality clearly and rejecting false hope.

“Regarding the best and worst scenarios. The fate of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad is sealed, unfortunately, we are going to lose them. The main intrigue is when exactly this will happen: in December 2025, in January 2026 or even in the spring - in March-April. Their role now is to contain and exhaust the enemy to the maximum degree possible. The longer these cities slow down the Russian advance, the more time we will gain to build new defensive lines to the north. And here is another important aspect. In discussions around possible negotiations with the Russian occupiers... There is a narrative that Russia wants Ukraine to just withdraw from all of the Donetsk Oblast. They are demanding that we give it up without a fight - and let’s stop it.  But the part of the Donetsk Oblast that is currently under the control of the Ukrainian Defense Forces has one of the best-built fortifications networks... And it is precisely this defensive network that Russia wants to get without a fight - this entire complex of fortifications, entrenchments, embankments and positions. Quite understandably, no one is going to give it up.

The expert poses perhaps the most crucial question of the day: are the neighboring regions prepared for defense?

"What is the situation like in the Kharkiv Oblast? In Barvinkove? In Lozova? What is the state of the defensive lines along the path to Izyum? What about the preparation for defense in the direction of Pavlohrad? Are there multi-kilometer lines controlled by Vampire drones, are there ditches, tranches, minefields, embankments? Or are there preparations being made for the sowing campaign as if nothing is happening? That is the No. 1 problem. Instead of thinking about the sowing campaign, we have to build defenses in the regions bordering on the Donetsk Oblast,” Kovalenko says.

As regards Huliaipole, the expert sees the possibility of stabilizing the situation provided that the right engineering solutions are implemented.

“The best-case scenario would be where the Russians remain only in the eastern part of the city, run up against the Haichur River and lose the capacity to move further. In fact, the Haichur should become the main, total line of defense: with full control, with readiness to cross it, with a robust network of inner-layer defense systems and engineering barriers. Everything located behind the Haichur should be turned into a continuous, impassible strip of obstacles – from minefields and ditches to echeloned layered fortifications. And this has to be done as long as the engineering forces can still work there, by the time the Russians are able to build a permanent kill zone with FPV drones and make it impossible for Ukraine to set up more defense lines and fortifications.”

Pavlo Lakiychuk sums up the situation by reminding that war is a two-way process, and the enemy as well is being exhausted. Uncertainty is a fog in which both parties are wandering.

“The frontline situation is really difficult. But it is a far cry from the one depicted by Russian propaganda machine. It is difficult not only for our defenders. The enemy too is not having it easy. Quite obviously, on the primary axes of attack, the timing of the enemy’s offensive has broken down, operational reserves have already been thrown into battle, intended to build on progress.  But a breakthrough of our defenses is not guaranteed at all. Moreover, the probability is high that Ukrainians are regrouping forces in some areas in preparation for counterattacks. It is for a reason that Syrsky is shuttling between Pokrovsk and Huliaipole. I am uncertain whether this will turn the situation around or yield success. The adversary, on the other hand, is uncertain about this either. And it is nervous,” says Lakiychuk.

CONCLUSION NOTES

The battle for the Ukrainian east has entered its climax. The enemy is seeking to “win” not so much on the battlefield as in the minds of Ukrainians and their allies, flooding the public discourse with fakes about its “victories.” The reality is harsher than Russia’s victorious reports have it, but it is also more complicated than the soothing mantras. Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, and Huliaipole are held by the superhuman firmness of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, turning them into a meat grinder for the occupiers. The loss of more territories is likely, but it must be converted into time gains to build new fortresses behind the existing defense lines. The main lesson of today is: do not believe the maps drawn in the Kremlin, but do not ignore the threat, prepare defenses there where the land is still being plowed for sowing.

Myroslav Liskovych, Kyiv