Intelligence: Russia rapidly loses arms market

The Russian defense-industrial complex is losing markets, technologically degrading, and becoming increasingly dependent on customers from Africa and the Middle East. In the near future, the decline in exports will only accelerate.

The Foreign Intelligence Service (SZR) of Ukraine reported this on its website, according to Ukrinform.

"The CEO of Rostec Sergey Chemezov has acknowledged the further collapse of Russian arms exports. Until 2022, Russia had been receiving about $14 billion annually, but in 2024, revenues declined dramatically. Data from the Jamestown Foundation confirm the rapid decline: $12.5 billion in 2021, $8 billion in 2022, $3 billion in 2023, and only $1 billion in 2024," SZR noted.

The agency cited assessments from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), which state that Russia's share of the global arms market decreased from 21% to 7.8% in 2024.

"The geography of supplies is also narrowing: from 47 countries in 2018-2022 to 33 in 2024, with most of them being countries in Asia and Oceania. The largest buyers – India, China, and Kazakhstan – are also reducing their purchases," the statement said.

It is noted that despite Chemezov's statements about future recovery and an order portfolio of more than $60 billion, a significant portion of the contracts is unconfirmed and depends on clients with low solvency.

According to SZR, without Russian financing these deals remain political declarations rather than real exports.

SZR reported that at the Dubai Air Show 2025 Rosoboronexport displayed 850 items, but almost all the latest samples turned out to be mock-ups, which shows the depth of technological backwardness and shortage of combat-ready products.

As Ukrinform reported, the intelligence service also stated that Russian companies are switching to survival mode.

Photo: Gerd Altmann/geralt on pixabay